尿素早评：出口预期再起-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea has strengthened recently because market news indicates that the fourth export quota of urea has been finalized, about 600,000 tons, which helps relieve domestic supply - demand pressure. Also, the fourth - quarter urea winter storage will gradually start nationwide, and the rebound of urea at a low valuation is in line with previous judgments. The 12 - contract put - selling options recommended in the 10.21 report can be considered for gradual profit - taking as the 12 - contract options are about to expire [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1,660 yuan/ton on November 10, down 7 yuan or 0.42% from November 7. UR05 closed at 1,732 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12%. UR09 closed at 1,755 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.11% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu increased, with Hebei having the largest increase of 40 yuan or 2.52% to 1,630 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 112 yuan/ton on November 10, up 22 yuan from November 7. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 72 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 50 yuan or 1.72% to 2,950 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan or 0.20% to 5,093 yuan/ton. Other downstream prices remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,670 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,670 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,652 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,660 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,661 yuan/ton, and the position was 257,574 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profit on the 12 - contract put - selling options [1].