国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251111

Report Information - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to face inventory build - up pressure and decline from high levels [2][4] - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate around high levels [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's closing price was 765.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.59%). The previous day's position was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores remained stable, while prices of some domestic ores decreased [4] - News: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project on November 11 [5] - Trend Intensity: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,044 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.26%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,252 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). There were changes in trading volume, position, and basis [8] - News: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%) from the previous month. There were also changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand in November [9][10] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: There were price changes in futures contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Spot prices and various price differences also had corresponding changes [12] - News: There were price changes in raw materials such as semi - coke, and changes in the tender quantity of a large steel group [12][13][14] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The previous day's closing price of JM2601 was 1,265.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (- 0.4%); J2601 was 1,743.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.7%). There were changes in trading volume, position, and basis [16] - News: In October 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.2% year - on - year [16] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - Fundamentals: There were price, trading volume, and position changes in different log futures contracts. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while others had slight changes [19] - News: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [21] - Trend Intensity: 0 [21]