贵金属日报：关税风险进一步出清，美政府停摆有望周内结束-20251111

Report Overview Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] Core View - The risk sentiment towards US equity assets in the market has increased, which may boost the investment demand for gold. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly strong oscillatory pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 920 yuan/gram - 970 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also rising, slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. The silver price is expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 11600 yuan/kilogram - 12100 yuan/kilogram. It is recommended to short the gold - silver ratio at high levels and postpone options trading [8][9] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The US officially announced a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries, and China announced a one - year suspension of the special port dues for US ships and a one - year suspension of counter - measures against five US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. The US Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, but the final vote time has not been arranged, and the bill still needs to be voted on by the House of Representatives. The US government shutdown may end before this weekend [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 10, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 918.74 yuan/gram and closed at 935.98 yuan/gram, a change of 1.60% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 940.18 yuan/gram and closed at 944.76 yuan/gram, a 0.94% increase from the afternoon closing. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11455.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11719.00 yuan/kilogram, a 2.05% change from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 1015910 lots, and the open interest was 243217 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11810 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11868 yuan/kilogram, a 1.27% increase from the afternoon closing [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.11%, up 0.21 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year bonds was 0.56%, a 0.02% change from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On November 10, 2025, in the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 697 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 562 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 481732 lots, a 17.91% change from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai Silver, in the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 2075 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4410 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1873576 lots, a 19.78% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1042.06 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15089 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 10, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 3.27 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 883.09 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 79.87, a - 0.12% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 82.27, a 0.03% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 10, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51204 kilograms, a - 8.63% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 712714 kilograms, a 34.61% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 28320 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 920 yuan/gram - 970 yuan/gram. Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 11600 yuan/kilogram - 12100 yuan/kilogram. Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. Options: Postpone [8][9]