FICC日报：美政府“停摆”有望结束，风险资产走强-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown is expected to end, and risk assets are strengthening. The domestic market has seen frequent positive news, but the economic foundation still needs to be consolidated. The release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal has boosted market sentiment and economic expectations. The US has temporarily alleviated its liquidity risk, but its manufacturing index has declined, and employment and inflation situations are complex. Different commodity sectors have different investment opportunities and focuses [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released. According to the per capita GDP target, the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. On October 30, the China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and on November 5, China officially postponed tariffs. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8. China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the previous value increased by 8.3%. China's CPI in October increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024. The PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. On November 10, the State Council General Office issued measures to promote private investment. The A - share market fluctuated and diverged throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53%. Most commodities closed higher, with lithium carbonate rising by 7.36% and Shanghai silver rising by 2.85% [1] US Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. On November 9, the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, which will provide funds until January 30, 2026. The US ISM manufacturing index in October dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. The "small non - farm" ADP in October added 42,000 new jobs, exceeding expectations, but salary growth has stagnated [2] Commodity Analysis - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered relatively loose, with OPEC+ announcing an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worthy of attention. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. After the short - term sharp adjustment risk of precious metals is cleared, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips. On November 10, spot gold reached $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 27, rising about 2.5% intraday [3] Key News - China's CPI in October increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the previous value was - 0.3%. China's PPI in October was - 2.1% year - on - year, and the previous value was - 2.3%. The government encourages private capital to participate in key projects in various fields. The market fluctuated and diverged throughout the day, with about 3,400 stocks rising in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92%. The large - consumption sector, financial stocks, chemical stocks and storage chip sectors performed strongly, while the robot concept stocks adjusted. Most commodity futures closed higher, with lithium carbonate rising by more than 7% and glass falling by more than 2%. Spot gold reached $4,100 per ounce [5]