华宝期货晨报铁矿石-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic and international macro environments are in a vacuum. The core focus of the fundamentals is on the domestic demand side. The supply side generally shows a steady increase. In the short - term, it is a seasonal production cut, and overall, the demand is in a marginal decline. However, the inventory level at the steel mill end is low, and the basis rate and internal - external price difference are large. The current price is expected to be at a relatively low level. In the short - term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Overall, the price center is expected to move down but maintain a range - bound oscillation [3] - The price will operate within a range. The main contract of iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will be in the range of 750 - 785 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market price of about 100.5 - 104.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is range operation and selling put options [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic and Policy - Both domestic and international macro environments are in a vacuum. The pricing of industrial products has returned to their own fundamentals. Under the weak reality environment, the black series is generally under pressure, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal is expected to continue. The next policy game window is the Central Economic Work Conference in December. The 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on new - quality productivity, and the old kinetic energy is mainly for support, so domestic - demand commodities lack policy drive [2] Supply - The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level year - on - year. The support from the supply side remains weak. As of the week ending November 10, the global iron ore shipment was 30.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.448 million tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 25.486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.106 million tons. The 5 - week average shipment of global iron ore was 32.423 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.16 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 27.976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.953 million tons [2] Demand - The loss range of domestic blast furnace steel mills continues to expand. The environmental protection restrictions in Handan have been tightened, and the number of blast furnace overhauls has increased. In many regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and the Northeast, due to the decline in demand and losses, although the number of blast furnace restarts in North China has increased, the blast furnace operating rate has increased under the sintering restriction policy in North China, but the molten iron output has decreased. Overall, the domestic iron ore demand has shown a trend decline due to environmental protection factors and the contraction of production profits, which is in line with the seasonal production cut rule. Later, there is still an expectation of seasonal production cuts in steel mills in regions such as Xinjiang, and the molten iron output is likely to maintain a slow decline [2] Inventory - Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the domestic port inventory continues to accumulate. In the short - term, the pressure on the supply side remains, and the decline rate of the demand side may slow down but is generally in a downward cycle. As of November 7, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 148.9883 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5635 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.7023 million tons [2]