丙烯日报：下游逢低采购，市场交投好转-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; may stop falling in the short term, but the upward drive is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and the restart of downstream devices brings demand increments, promoting the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot price rebounds, and the futures market stops falling and consolidates [2] - The supply side has a phased reduction, but the supply is still loose, and the factory inventory pressure is still high. The demand side is driven by downstream bargain - hunting purchases, and the overall profit margin of downstream products has improved. The demand support for propylene may increase later [2] - International oil prices still face oversupply pressure, and the external propane market is continuously weak, so the cost support for propylene is limited [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Information includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [6][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Information involves the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [15][17][27] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [30][31][33] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Information covers the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][53] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [63][69]