氯碱日报：供需偏弱，PVC震荡探底-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The PVC market is in a weak supply - demand situation with a downward - trending price, while the caustic soda market has mixed price trends and uncertain future due to various factors such as production capacity changes, demand fluctuations, and cost impacts [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,614 yuan/ton (+3), with an East China basis of - 74 yuan/ton (- 33) and a South China basis of - 4 yuan/ton (- 13) [1]. - Spot price: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,540 yuan/ton (- 30), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,610 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke was 800 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide was 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide profit was - 100 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit was - 769 yuan/ton (- 6), ethylene - based PVC production gross profit was - 465 yuan/ton (+79), and PVC export profit was 4.8 dollars/ton (- 0.3) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: PVC factory inventory was 33.5 tons (- 0.3), social inventory was 54.6 tons (+0.1), calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 80.17% (+3.70%), ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 77.23% (- 1.27%), and overall PVC operation rate was 79.28% (+2.19%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sale volume of production enterprises was 74.2 tons (- 3.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,349 yuan/ton (+18), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 151 yuan/ton (- 18) [1]. - Spot price: 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and 50% liquid caustic soda was 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 845.8 yuan/ton (- 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 43.78 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 811.83 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 41.48 tons (- 2.78), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.90 tons (+0.17), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.80% (+0.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 85.25% (- 0.61%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 68.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 89.60% (- 0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Two new units were under maintenance this week, but new production capacities were gradually being put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream operation rate decreased, low - price purchases improved slightly, but overall purchasing sentiment was average [3]. - Export: Exports relied on price cuts for volume, export orders decreased month - on - month, and India's anti - dumping tax was expected to be implemented in November [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased slightly last week, and the absolute inventory value was high [3]. - Futures: PVC futures warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures price continued [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Equipment maintenance decreased, and the operation rate increased. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Orders from Shandong alumina were stable, but due to environmental control, some Hebei enterprises reduced their operation rates. Non - alumina demand was mainly for rigid purchases and was expected to weaken in the off - season [3]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased slightly last week, and the national liquid caustic soda inventory decreased [3]. - Price: The price of caustic soda fluctuated. The expected commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi might support the price in the next two months. Shandong's electricity price increase in November and the relatively weak liquid chlorine price led to low chlor - alkali profits, but there was still cost support [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound and weak, with the option of positive cash - and - carry arbitrage [4]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound [5]. - Inter - period: Positive arbitrage for SH12 - 01 [5]. - Inter - commodity: None [5].