Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3953 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4008 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or -0.25%. The spot basis of EG in East China was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$55/ton, up $2/ton from the previous day, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -891 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in East China's main ports was 66.1 tons, up 9.9 tons from the previous period; according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons, up 6.5 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.1 tons, with 4.7 tons at the secondary ports, indicating a high probability of inventory accumulation [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is running at a high level, and the domestic supply is abundant. Overseas, there are limited changes in ethylene glycol plants, and the planned arrivals around mid - November are still moderately high, so port inventories are expected to gradually increase. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. In the fourth quarter, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation due to high supply and many planned new production capacities. It is also recommended to conduct an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3953 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4008 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or -0.25%. The spot basis of EG in East China was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$55/ton, up $2/ton from the previous day, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -891 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 International Price Difference No specific data on international price differences is provided in the current report content. 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. 3.5 Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in East China's main ports was 66.1 tons, up 9.9 tons from the previous period; according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons, up 6.5 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.1 tons, with 4.7 tons at the secondary ports, indicating a high probability of inventory accumulation [1].
化工日报：华东主港大幅累库，本周到港计划仍多-20251111
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-11 02:57