农产品日报：现货涨跌互现，豆粕震荡运行-20251111

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of soybean meal remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates but high soybean and soybean meal inventories. Downstream demand is mainly for rolling replenishment, and the supply is loose. Future attention should be paid to soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [2] - For corn, new corn is concentrated on the market in Northeast and North China, with an overall increasing production. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have weak inventory - building intentions, and the supply is slightly loose. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling progress and traders' inventory - building intentions [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 粕类 (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2527 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.47%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of November 5, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area was 4.4% of the total expected area, nearly 4 percentage points behind last year, and the estimated planting area was 17.6 million hectares, a 4.3% year - on - year decrease [1] Market Analysis - The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates but high inventories. Downstream demand is for rolling replenishment, and the supply is loose. Future attention should be paid to soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2164 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.70%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2479 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.69%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market News: Brazil exported 6.5 million tons of corn in October, a 1% year - on - year increase, with an average daily export volume of 295,000 tons, also a 1% increase [3] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market in Northeast and North China, with an overall increasing production. There will be another wave of supply in Jilin and Inner Mongolia [4] - Demand: Deep - processing and feed enterprises have weak inventory - building intentions and are mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The supply is slightly loose, and the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling progress and traders' inventory - building intentions [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]