新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝现货价格得到支撑-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas production cuts and positive macro - factors support the price, and the callback depth is limited. If the inventory reduction is smooth, the upward space of aluminum price may open [6]. - The supply - demand surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged, but spot prices are supported by active procurement. The current price is undervalued, and attention should be paid to unexpected events [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,490 yuan/ton, with a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 30 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,380 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,370 yuan/ton, with a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 145 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract opened at 21,660 yuan/ton, closed at 21,725 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,750 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 238,609 lots, and the open interest was 382,845 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 10, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 64,142 tons, an increase of 372 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 547,225 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 10, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,785 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,935 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,960 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main alumina futures contract opened at 2,782 yuan/ton, closed at 2,829 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 1.80% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,844 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,780 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 497,030 lots, and the open interest was 407,979 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 10, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 142 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. Overseas production cuts in Iceland, positive macro - factors, and the undervalued aluminum price in terms of the copper - aluminum ratio limit the downward space. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plants increased the purchase price. The supply of bauxite is under pressure, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the spot price is supported by procurement. The current price is undervalued, and attention should be paid to unexpected events [7][8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]