流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：地方债还有什么机会

Group 1 - The report indicates that the central bank's net investment in government bonds in October 2025 was 20 billion yuan, which is lower than the monthly net purchases in 2024, which ranged from 100 billion to 300 billion yuan [1][8] - Since June 2025, major banks have significantly increased their net purchases of government bonds with maturities of 3 years or less, with monthly net purchases exceeding 230 billion yuan [1][8] - The liquidity outlook remains relatively loose, with a weekly net payment of 369.2 billion yuan in government bonds, the highest in two months, despite low maturity amounts and the absence of tax periods [2][9] Group 2 - The sentiment in the secondary market for local government bonds has been positive since late October, with insurance and fund institutions being the main net buyers, particularly in the 15-20 year and 3-5 year maturities [2][18] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is currently less than one-fifth of the planned 500 billion yuan, with a focus on maturities that may widen the spread between local government bonds and national bonds [3][18] - The report highlights that the newly issued bonds in November have an implied tax rate of 3% or below, with many bonds deviating significantly from secondary market pricing [3][18]