新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-11）-20251111

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillatory [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillatory [2] - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda ash: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 50: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 300: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom - oscillatory [6] - Pulp: Bottom - rebound [6] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean oil: Range - bound operation [6] - Palm oil: Range - bound operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound operation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillatory [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and slightly stronger [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: On - the - sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PR: On - the - sidelines [9] - PF: On - the - sidelines [9] Core Viewpoints - The black industry is affected by macro and fundamental factors, with supply - demand imbalances in some products and price trends mainly oscillatory [2] - The financial market, including stock index futures, options, and bonds, shows different trends, with the overall market having short - term adjustments and a medium - term upward trend [4] - Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data, showing a strong - biased oscillatory trend [4] - Light industry products like logs and pulp have complex supply - demand situations, with prices showing bottom - oscillatory or bottom - rebound trends [6] - Oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies, with overall range - bound operations and oscillatory trends for some products [6][7] - Agricultural products like live pigs have complex supply - demand relationships, with prices showing oscillatory and slightly stronger or downward trends [7] - Soft commodities such as rubber and chemical products in the polyester industry are affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand, with prices showing oscillatory or wide - range oscillatory trends [9] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 544,800 tons to 2.7693 million tons, a 16.44% drop. The iron water output continued to decline, and the port inventory increased. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the short - term trend is mainly oscillatory [2] - Coking coal and coke: The Fed's interest - rate cut, improved Sino - US relations, and low coal inventory support the price. The core contradiction is the low profit of steel mills. The short - term trend is high - level oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The macro - level good news has landed, and the price has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for steel is weak, and the price stop - falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - Glass: The news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe is fermenting, with 4 production lines to be cold - repaired. The demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price trend depends on production - line cold - repair and policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market shows short - term adjustments and a medium - term upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is flat, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data, the short - term trend is strong - biased oscillation [4] Light Industry - Logs: The port inventory is increasing, the demand is difficult to maintain, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, the demand is poor, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [6] - Offset paper: The supply pressure exists, the market expectation is cautious, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils and fats: The production of Malaysian palm oil is high, the export is strong, and the supply in China is abundant. The overall trend is range - bound operation [6] - Oilseeds: The impact of China's tariff policy on the US is short - term, and the supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing. The price trend is oscillatory [6][7] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight is slightly rising, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The weekly average price may decline [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: Affected by factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, oil prices, and supply - demand relationships, the price trends are oscillatory, wide - range oscillatory, or on - the - sidelines [9]