碳酸锂日评：宽幅震荡-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand are both strong, with repeated news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and the high price intensifies the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players, resulting in sluggish trading in the spot market. However, there is an expectation of weakening in power demand, and the game between bulls and bears intensifies. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate widely. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures increased in price with an increase in positions. The trading volume was 986,569 lots (+175,914), and the position volume was 534,483 lots (+43,532). The trading in the spot market was sluggish, and the basis discount was large [1]. - The prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts and the overall price all increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the near - month contract's closing price increased from 80,460 yuan/ton on November 7 to 84,500 yuan/ton on November 10 [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related products generally showed an upward trend. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 39 US dollars/ton to 966 US dollars/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 45 yuan/ton to 1,365 yuan/ton [1]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) increased by 350 yuan/ton to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, coarse - grained) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 75,630 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials all increased. In November, the planned production of lithium carbonate increased, and the scheduled production decreased [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production of ternary materials increased. In November, the planned production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 27,491 tons (+159 tons), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties all decreased. The total inventory decreased by 3,405 tons to 123,953 tons last week [1]. 3.5 Industry News - In October, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.5% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale volume was 12.058 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.9% [1]. - The Secretariat of Mining and Energy of Salta Province, Argentina, has issued an Environmental Impact Assessment Report for the first phase of the PPGS Jujuy Lake project, marking a key progress for the project. The project plans to submit an application for the Large - scale Investment Promotion System (RIGI) to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026 and has about 15,070 tons of LCE indicated + controlled resources [1].