尿素日报：价格暂稳，新单跟进放缓-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, opportunistic cash-and-carry arbitrage in futures and spot markets [3] - Inter - delivery spread: On the sidelines [3] - Inter - commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea prices are temporarily stable, but new order follow - up has slowed. The market sentiment has improved due to export quota news, with some regions' agricultural autumn fertilizers ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers winding up, and melamine's operation slightly increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - based plant maintenance is expected to start in December. The export sentiment still affects the urea market, and the newly - obtained export quota and the Indian import tender may support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 10, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,660 yuan/ton (-7). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,620 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 40 yuan/ton (+27), in Henan was - 40 yuan/ton (+27), and in Jiangsu was - 50 yuan/ton (+37) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (0.08% change). There is information about urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume in related figures [1][17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 10, 2025, the urea production profit was 90 yuan/ton (+20). There are also data on production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based production in related figures [1][19] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - On November 10, 2025, the urea export profit was 962 yuan/ton (+42). The report mentions that urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, and on November 7, India's IPL issued a new urea import tender for 2.5 million tons. There are also data on overseas prices and export profit margins in related figures [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rates and Orders - As of November 10, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (0.00% change), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (+3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.29 days (-0.24) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5781 million tons (+23,800), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000) [1]