原油日报：卢克石油国际资产面临制裁风险-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report's Core View - Sanctions have led to uncertainties in the oil market, with Luke Oil's international assets at risk of sanctions. The company needs to sell its international assets quickly, but it is difficult to do so in a short time [2]. - Oil prices are expected to be short - term oscillating and bearish, with a medium - term short position recommendation, and a strategy of shorting the monthly spread (buying far - dated contracts and selling near - dated contracts, targeting WTI or Brent) [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's December - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures rose 38 cents to $60.13 per barrel, a 0.64% increase; January - delivery London Brent crude oil futures rose 43 cents to $64.06 per barrel, a 0.68% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed down 0.04% at 460 yuan per barrel [1]. - Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) bought 2 million barrels of WTI crude oil and 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil, expected to arrive in January. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) bought 1 million barrels of Basra Medium crude oil for delivery from January 1st to 7th. Both companies have suspended purchasing Russian oil [1]. - The share price of Hungarian refiner Mol rose after Prime Minister Orbán obtained a waiver from US sanctions on Russian oil. Mol's refineries in Hungary and Slovakia continue to rely on Russian crude oil, and the price difference of cheap Russian oil helps expand its refining profit margins and boost Q3 earnings [1]. - During the heating season from this winter to next spring, CNPC has arranged a 3.7% year - on - year increase in natural gas supply resources, accounting for over 60% of the domestic supply. In the first three quarters of this year, CNPC produced 123 billion cubic meters of natural gas (a 4.7% year - on - year increase), imported 80.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas (a 5.7% year - on - year increase), and injected 18.6 billion cubic meters of gas into storage facilities (an 8.8% year - on - year increase) [1]. - Luke Oil has terminated the employment of non - Russian foreign employees at the West Qurna - 2 oil field. Iraq has frozen cash and crude oil payments to Luke Oil and is seeking legal ways to ensure the continued operation of the field [1]. Investment Logic - Although the US has exempted Hungary from Russian energy imports for one year, uncertainties due to sanctions remain. The West Qurna - 2 oil field in Iraq, in which Luke Oil participates, has seen Iraq stop paying cash to the company and cancel three cargoes of equity crude oil originally allocated to it in November. Luke Oil needs to sell its international assets quickly, but it is difficult to do so in a short time, and these assets may still be affected by sanctions [2]. Strategy - Short - term, oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias; medium - term, a short position is recommended, and short the monthly spread (buy far - dated contracts and sell near - dated contracts, targeting WTI or Brent) [3].