油脂日报：马棕库存连升，油脂震荡运行-20251111

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated. Although the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased, the export data was better than expected, resulting in a mixed situation of long and short factors, causing the oils to oscillate [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8690.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +30 yuan and a range of +0.35% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8228.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +44.00 yuan and a range of +0.54% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9587.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +54.00 yuan and a range of +0.57% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8600.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +80.00 yuan and a range of +0.94%, and the spot basis was P01 + -90.00, with a month-on-month change of +50.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8390.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +100.00 yuan/ton and a range of +1.21%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 162.00, with a month-on-month change of +56.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +60.00 yuan and a range of +0.61%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 353.00, with a month-on-month change of +6.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - As of the end of October, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased for the eighth consecutive month, reaching a six-and-a-half-year high. The export volume from November 1 - 10 decreased compared to the same period last month - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, China's total soybean imports were 10937 million tons, and exports were 8 million tons. The autumn harvest of soybeans in the 2025/26 fiscal year is almost over, and the global soybean supply is abundant - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 fiscal year reached 61% of the expected level, and the sowing area of the first crop of corn reached 72% of the planned planting area in the central and southern regions - Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports last week and this week's planned exports are as follows: last week, 1107941 tons of soybeans, 279113 tons of soybean meal, and 839991 tons of corn were exported; this week, the planned exports are 1555625 tons of soybeans, 810210 tons of soybean meal, and 1871269 tons of corn [2] MPOB Report - Due to the continuously high production, Malaysian palm oil production in October increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2.0439 million tons, and the export volume was 1.6929 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.58%. However, the growth rate was lower than that of production, so the ending inventory increased by 4.44% month-on-month to 2.44 million tons, rising for six consecutive months [3] Group 4: Charts - The report includes 30 charts related to the prices, production, exports, inventory, and other aspects of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]