光大期货金融期货日报-20251111

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On November 11, 2025, the market showed a volatile and differentiated trend with the three major indexes rising and falling unevenly. The Sino-US summit is conducive to the improvement of China's total demand and the valuation of A-share technology stocks. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China boosts market confidence, and the structured market is expected to continue. However, the valuation of the science and technology innovation index is at a historical extreme, so be cautious about chasing high. The A-share non-financial Q3 reports show signs of improvement [1] - Treasury bond futures closed with gains on November 11, 2025. The central bank's operations and the expected stable economic situation in Q4 are favorable for the bond market. However, the "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds causes some fluctuations in bond market sentiment, and the bond market is expected to continue the volatile pattern [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The market was volatile and differentiated on November 11, 2025, with about 3,400 stocks rising in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets and a trading volume of 2.19 trillion yuan. The Sino-US summit is beneficial to China's demand and A-share technology stocks. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee focuses on technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, and reform and opening up. The A-share non-financial Q3 reports show that the cumulative revenue and net profit growth rates have improved, but the ROE is still in a low and volatile range [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: On November 11, 2025, the 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year treasury bond futures contracts rose, while the 2-year contract was basically stable. The central bank conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on November 10, with a net investment of 41.6 billion yuan. The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is favorable for the bond market. The economic situation in Q4 is expected to be stable, and the short-term necessity of interest rate cuts is low. The "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds affects bond market sentiment [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: From November 7 to November 10, 2025, IH rose by 0.52%, IF by 0.27%, IC by 0.08%, and IM by 0.12%. Among the stock indexes, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose by 0.51%, the CSI 300 by 0.35%, the CSI 500 by 0.22%, and the CSI 1000 by 0.28% [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: From November 7 to November 10, 2025, TS remained unchanged, TF rose by 0.03%, T by 0.04%, and TL by 0.28% [3] 3. Market News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a guidance on promoting the consumption and regulation of new energy. It aims to balance the external transmission and local consumption of new energy bases in desert, gobi, and desertified areas, and promote large-scale local consumption through various means [4] 4. Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, showing their price trends and basis changes from January 2024 to July 2025 [6][8][10] - Treasury Bond Futures: The report includes charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures contracts, covering data from January 2024 to October 2025 [13][16][18] - Exchange Rates: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen from January 2023 to August 2025 [21][22][25]