2026年宏观与政策展望：万里豁晴川

Market Overview - Chinese market rebounded on Monday, with October CPI rising, significantly boosting consumer stocks[3] - European stock markets closed strongly, with optimism over the potential end of the US government shutdown enhancing market sentiment[3] - US stock indices saw substantial gains, led by technology stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 2.3%[9] Economic Indicators - US Senate made progress on a bill to end the federal government shutdown, which is expected to restore data releases and strengthen market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December[4] - October CPI in the US showed a slowdown in the price increase of durable and personal goods for the first time in three months[6] Commodity and Forex Markets - Gold prices surged nearly 3%, reaching a two-week high, supported by positive market sentiment[4] - Oil prices also increased, with NY crude oil rising 0.64% to $60.13 per barrel[24] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose ahead of the holiday, with a strong demand for a $58 billion 3-year Treasury auction, exceeding expectations[5] - Asian bond markets showed slow trading but maintained a resilient sentiment, with bond spreads narrowing by 1-3 basis points[28] Stock Performance - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.55%, driven by large tech stocks and a rebound in consumer sectors[10] - A-shares showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.53% and strong performances in consumer stocks like Shanxi Fenjiu, which rose 6%[14] Global Market Trends - The KOSPI index in South Korea surged 3.0%, reflecting a broad recovery in the Asia-Pacific region[18] - The MSCI Asia Emerging Markets Index (excluding China) showed positive movement, indicating a favorable outlook for the region[20]