棉花周报：市场暂不明朗，维持窄幅震荡-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industry drivers are unclear, and cotton futures prices are expected to have limited upward space and fluctuate narrowly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - US cotton prices declined continuously last week, with a closing price of 63.62 cents per pound on Friday, a drop of 2.93%. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2020, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2771 [9]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,455 to 13,640 yuan per ton, with a closing price of 13,580 yuan per ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 15 yuan or 0.11%. As of November 7, the registered and forecasted warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton totaled 3,858 lots, equivalent to 192,000 tons [10]. - Spot cotton prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a trend of first falling and then rising, ranging from 6.4 to 6.6 yuan per kilogram, and the new cotton cost provided some support for cotton prices [12]. 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market 3.2.1 Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [17]. - In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton. Australia and Brazil were the main sources, with Australia supplying 69,900 tons and Brazil 12,300 tons [24]. 3.2.2 Demand - Demand was lower than the same period last year. Domestic demand had no obvious positive factors, while exports improved slightly. Weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly on a wait - and - see basis [26][32]. 3.2.3 Profit - The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 517 - 613 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 989.1 to - 819.7 yuan per ton, showing an improvement compared to last week [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 521,700 tons and 278,800 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [41]. 3.3 International Market - According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in September, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [43]. - The US government shutdown led to the suspension of most USDA reports [46].