Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Macroscopically, the expected end of the US government "shutdown" has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, providing some support for commodity prices. Industrially, the de - stocking of the five major steel products continued, but the slowdown in the decline of rebar inventory and the increase in hot - rolled coil inventory, along with the continuous decline in hot metal, have put pressure on steel prices. Currently, steel prices are near previous lows, and it is expected that the downward space is limited, with short - term low - level fluctuations. Medium - term, pay attention to new macro - driving factors from mid - November to December [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, overseas markets focused on liquidity risks, with a phased increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The high - level US dollar index pressured commodities. Industrially, the de - stocking of the five major steel products slowed down, with rebar slightly reducing inventory and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing. Steel prices fluctuated weakly under pressure [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Production: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production both decreased slightly. National rebar weekly production was 208.54 tons (down 1.91% week - on - week and 10.77% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly production was 318.16 tons (down 1.67% week - on - week and up 2.13% year - on - year). Rebar production from both electric furnaces and blast furnaces decreased [13][15]. - Operating Rate: The blast furnace operating rate increased, while the electric furnace operating rate decreased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.13% (up 1.69% week - on - week and 0.84% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 67.03% (down 2.62% week - on - week and 4.37% year - on - year) [22][26]. - Profit: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved slightly. Rebar profit was - 39 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 188 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 80 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 141 yuan/ton year - on - year) [27][30]. - Demand: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined. Rebar apparent consumption was 218.52 tons (down 5.89% week - on - week and 5.34% year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.64 tons (down 7.81% week - on - week and 23.09% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.3 tons (down 5.30% week - on - week and 1.48% year - on - year) [31][35]. - Inventory: Rebar de - stocking slowed down, with both factory and social inventories slightly decreasing. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased, with social inventory rising and factory inventory slightly decreasing [36][40]. - Downstream: In the real estate sector, the transactions of commercial housing and land both decreased month - on - month. In the automotive sector, in September 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][50]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The arrivals from Australia and Brazil decreased periodically. The iron ore price index was 104.13 (down 2.23% week - on - week and up 2.96% year - on - year), the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2683.5 tons (down 5.66% week - on - week and up 0.39% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2741.2 tons (down 14.83% week - on - week and up 17.80% year - on - year) [53][58]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal decreased month - on - month, while the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily output of hot metal was 234.22 tons (down 2.14 tons week - on - week and up 0.16 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 320.93 tons (up 0.24% week - on - week and 2.08% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.21 days (up 2.83% week - on - week and down 0.89% year - on - year) [59][63]. - Inventory: Iron ore port inventory continued to rise, and steel enterprises' iron ore inventory increased slightly. The inventory at 45 ports was 14898.83 tons (up 2.45% week - on - week and down 2.50% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9009.94 tons (up 1.81% week - on - week and down 1.32% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 24.25 days (up 3.85% week - on - week and 12.74% year - on - year) [64][68]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The operating rate of domestic coking mines continued to decline, while Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level. The operating rate of coking mines was 83.76% (down 1.20% week - on - week and 6.71% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 37.61% (up 3.15% week - on - week and down 11.96% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.55 tons (up 52.78% week - on - week and 3.73% year - on - year) [70][74]. - Demand: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased slightly. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 61.25% (down 37.74% week - on - week and 34.35% year - on - year), and the weekly transaction rate was 88.42% (down 5.00% week - on - week and up 3.11% year - on - year) [75][77]. - Coking Enterprises: The profit of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 22 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 58 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.31% (down 1.54% week - on - week and 1.61% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 84.99% (down 0.26% week - on - week and 1.87% year - on - year) [79][83]. - Inventory: Coking coal port inventory continued to rise, and coking plant inventory continued to increase. Coke port inventory decreased, and coking plant inventory remained at a low level [84][90]. - Spot Price: The fourth round of coke price increase started, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1660 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week and 10 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1490 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 270 yuan/ton year - on - year) [96][100]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 1 - 5 spread of rebar narrowed. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar slightly widened, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke widened [102][108].
周报：风险偏好回升，钢价低位震荡运行-20251111
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-11-11 05:05