油厂大豆充盈，开机率再落

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybeans have a slight reduction in production, with the northeast soybeans being popular due to quality differentiation. Under the agreement, China may increase the import of US soybeans, resulting in a very sufficient soybean supply. The oil mill operating rate drops again, easing the pressure on soybean meal inventory. The demand is strong. The price of soybean No. 1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the price of soybean meal will remain volatile [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - The soybean No. 2601 contract fluctuates sharply around 4150, with intense long - short competition. The spot price is stable, and the market price of Fujin soybeans is around 4040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakens, and the premium on the futures market expands. The soybean meal 01 contract fluctuates around 3050. The spot price of soybean meal rises slightly, from 2970 yuan/ton to around 2990 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang. The basis weakens, and the premium on the futures market expands [4]. Domestic Production - The quality of domestic soybeans differentiates, and the output decreases slightly. According to the November report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, poor weather in North China leads to a decline in yield, and the total domestic soybean output is slightly adjusted down by 190,000 tons to 20.9 million tons, still higher than last year. As of November 7, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang drops to 90%; in Anhui, it drops to 89%; in Henan, it rises to 90%; in Shandong, it rises to 95%. The high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang are in high demand [4]. Import Situation - The import of domestic soybeans declines in October, with 9.48 million tons imported, a 26% month - on - month decrease and a 17.2% year - on - year increase. China and the US reach an agricultural product agreement, with China set to import tens of millions of tons of US soybeans and purchase at least 25 million tons annually in the next three years. Coupled with the previous over - purchase of South American soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be very sufficient. Although China and the US have mutually reduced taxes, a 10% basic tariff remains, and the import cost of US soybeans is not low. The premium of Brazilian soybeans decreases, with great cost advantages. As of November 7, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills is 2.4375 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase; the port soybean inventory is 10.334 million tons, a month - on - month increase to a new high in recent years [5]. US Soybean Market - US soybeans fluctuate at a high level. The soybean import agreement between China and the US boosts US soybeans. The US government may end the shutdown, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the November supply - demand report. Currently, US soybeans may be at the end of the harvest season. Attention should be paid to the report's feedback on the trade agreement [5]. Oil Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills drops again, and the soybean meal inventory decreases. The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing declines due to high costs. As of November 7, the operating rate of oil mills is 49.67%, a significant month - on - month drop; the soybean crushing volume is 1.8057 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; the soybean inventory of oil mills is 7.6195 million tons, a month - on - month increase, at a high level in recent years. The soybean meal production is 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 998,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal are 6.0015 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills are 7.75 days, a month - on - month decrease [5][6]. Feed Demand - The feed demand is strong. In the livestock farming sector, the pig price is low, and the farming continues to incur losses. As of November 7, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming is - 175.54 yuan per head; the self - breeding and self - raising profit is - 89.21 yuan per head. Currently, the adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national inventory of reproductive sows is 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month. The inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms also decreases slightly, but the piglet production increases slightly, and the piglet sales decline; the phenomena of over - fattening and secondary fattening increase. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory is 436.8 million, a 29% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 23% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, the egg price drops again, the farming continues to incur losses, the culling of poultry increases, the inventory in October decreases slightly month - on - month, and it may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. The feed demand is strong [6].