股指期货将偏强震荡,黄金、白银、铜期货将偏强震荡,碳酸锂期货将震荡偏强,原油、PTA、PVC期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-11 05:12
- Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures on November 11, 2025. For example, stock index futures, gold, silver, copper, and some other futures will likely have a relatively strong or strong - biased oscillation, while crude oil, PTA, PVC, and some others will likely have a weak - biased oscillation [1][2]. - The report also provides resistance and support levels for each futures contract, which can be used as references for investors to make trading decisions [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - Stock Index Futures: Likely to have a strong - biased oscillation on November 11, 2025. For instance, IF2512 has resistance at 4715 and 4741 points, and support at 4653 and 4626 points [2]. - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures: The T2512 contract is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with support at 108.36 and 108.31 yuan, and resistance at 108.54 and 108.68 yuan [2]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures: The TL2512 contract is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with support at 115.8 and 115.5 yuan, and resistance at 116.5 and 116.8 yuan [2]. - Gold Futures: The AU2512 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, aiming to break through resistance at 951.2 and 960.6 yuan/gram, with support at 935.0 and 931.2 yuan/gram [2]. - Silver Futures: The AG2512 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, aiming to break through resistance at 12000 and 12093 yuan/kg, with support at 11700 and 11652 yuan/kg [3]. - Copper Futures: The CU2512 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 87100 and 87600 yuan/ton, and support at 86300 and 85700 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Futures: The AL2601 contract is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 21620 and 21490 yuan/ton, and resistance at 21760 and 21790 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina Futures: The AO2601 contract is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 2850 and 2860 yuan/ton, and support at 2819 and 2803 yuan/ton [3]. - Polysilicon Futures: The PS2601 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 53600 and 54700 yuan/ton, and support at 53400 and 52600 yuan/ton [3]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The LC2601 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, aiming to break through resistance at 89800 and 90800 yuan/ton, with support at 87200 and 86000 yuan/ton [3]. - Rebar Futures: The RB2601 contract is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 3024 and 3009 yuan/ton, and resistance at 3046 and 3061 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: The HC2601 contract is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 3237 and 3229 yuan/ton, and resistance at 3265 and 3273 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron Ore Futures: The I2601 contract is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with support at 760 and 756 yuan/ton, and resistance at 768 and 771 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking Coal Futures: The JM2601 contract is likely to have a weak - biased oscillation, with support at 1244 and 1226 yuan/ton, and resistance at 1277 and 1291 yuan/ton [4]. - Glass Futures: The FG601 contract is likely to have a weak - biased oscillation, with support at 1055 and 1040 yuan/ton, and resistance at 1075 and 1091 yuan/ton [4]. - Soda Ash Futures: The SA601 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 1246 and 1261 yuan/ton, and support at 1223 and 1214 yuan/ton [4]. - Crude Oil Futures: The SC2512 contract is likely to have a weak - biased oscillation, aiming to test support at 456 and 452 yuan/barrel, with resistance at 462 and 466 yuan/barrel [4]. - PTA Futures: The TA601 contract is likely to have a weak - biased oscillation, aiming to test support at 4654 and 4624 yuan/ton, and resistance at 4720 and 4732 yuan/ton [4]. - PVC Futures: The V2601 contract is likely to have a weak - biased oscillation, aiming to test support at 4580 and 4550 yuan/ton, and resistance at 4614 and 4627 yuan/ton [5]. - Methanol Futures: The MA601 contract is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 2075 and 2060 yuan/ton, and resistance at 2112 and 2122 yuan/ton [7]. - Natural Rubber Futures: The RU2601 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 15210 and 15290 yuan/ton, and support at 15050 and 15000 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - The US has officially announced a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation measures against China's shipbuilding and other industries. China has also announced corresponding measures, including suspending the collection of special port fees for US ships and suspending counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. [8]. - The General Office of the State Council has issued several measures to further promote private investment, including 13 policy initiatives in areas such as expanding market access, promoting fair competition, and optimizing investment and financing support [8]. - Ten departments have released an implementation plan to promote the open interconnection of logistics data and effectively reduce the overall social logistics cost, and also released the first list of shared and open logistics public data in China [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo has concluded, with the annual intended turnover reaching 834.9 billion US dollars, a 4.4% increase from the previous session and a record high [8]. - Central enterprises have continued to increase investment in key areas such as technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and equipment renewal. In the first three quarters, they completed fixed - asset investment of over 3 trillion yuan, a growth of over 3%, and the proportion of investment in emerging industries is about 40% [9]. - After a 40 - day government "shutdown", the US Senate has procedurally voted to pass a temporary appropriation bill to end the government "shutdown", but the final voting time has not been arranged, and the bill still needs to be voted on by the House of Representatives [9]. - The US White House has announced a reciprocal trade framework agreement with Thailand, where Thailand will cancel 99% of tariff barriers on goods, and the US will maintain a 19% reciprocal tariff on Thai goods, with zero tariffs on some goods [9]. - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US to reduce the tariff on Swiss goods to 15%, which is a relief for Switzerland as it faced a 39% punitive tariff in August this year [9]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts to prevent the future weakening of the US economy, advocating for a faster rate - cut rhythm than the traditional 25 - basis - point cuts [10]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but tariff - related inflation is currently under control, and the Fed should discuss whether to continue cutting interest rates on the basis of a 50 - basis - point cut this year with an "open mind" [10]. - The latest data shows that the US container imports in October were 2.31 million TEUs, a 7.5% year - on - year decrease and a 0.1% month - on - month decrease. It is predicted that the inbound container volume in November and December will decrease by 14.4% and 17.9% year - on - year respectively, possibly falling below the key threshold of 2 million TEUs [10]. - The new Japanese government has clearly requested the Bank of Japan to postpone interest rate hikes until at least January next year to coordinate with the upcoming large - scale economic stimulus plan, but the Bank of Japan's October meeting minutes show that it may implement the next interest rate hike as early as December [10]. - The Japanese government plans to raise the visa application fee for foreign visitors in 2026, which will be the first increase since 1978 if implemented [11]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - According to the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of this year, China's gold consumption was 682.73 tons, a 7.95% year - on - year decrease, and the increase in domestic gold ETF positions was 79.015 tons, a 164.03% year - on - year increase, with a position of 193.749 tons at the end of September [11]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced that from November 11, 2025, to the end of 2026, the trading fees for the international board Hong Kong inquiry contracts iPAu99.99HK and iPAu99.5HK will be waived. Also, since November 17, the minimum subscription and redemption unit of "Bosera Gold ETF" will be reduced from 300,000 shares to 100,000 shares [12]. - On November 10, international precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.83% to 4123.40 US dollars/ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 4.70% to 50.41 US dollars/ounce [12]. - On November 10, the US crude oil main contract closed up 0.5% at 60.05 US dollars/barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract rose 0.5% to 63.95 US dollars/barrel [12]. - On November 10, London's basic metals all rose, with LME copper rising 1.47% to 10874.50 US dollars/ton, LME aluminum rising 1.14% to 2880.50 US dollars/ton, etc. [13]. - On November 10, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1175 at 16:30, up 50 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1185 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0856, down 20 basis points from the previous trading day [13]. - The three major RMB exchange - rate indices refreshed their highs since April. In the week of November 7, the CFETS RMB exchange - rate index was reported at 97.96, up 0.35; the BIS currency - basket RMB exchange - rate index was reported at 104.19, up 0.32; and the SDR currency - basket RMB exchange - rate index was reported at 92.34, up 0.08 [13]. - On November 10, at the end of the New York session, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.62, and non - US currencies showed mixed trends [14]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Stock Index Futures: On November 10, the main contracts of stock index futures such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all showed a certain degree of strength, with small - scale rebounds. The report predicts that in November 2025, these contracts will likely have a wide - range oscillation, and on November 11, they will likely have a strong - biased oscillation [14][15][16][18][19]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On November 10, the ten - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures showed different trends. The ten - year Treasury bond futures T2512 had a small - scale rebound, while the 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2512 continued to decline. The report predicts that on November 11, both contracts will likely have a wide - range oscillation [38][43][44]. - Precious Metal Futures: On November 10, gold and silver futures showed upward trends. The report predicts that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will likely have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation, and on November 11, the main contracts will likely have a strong - biased oscillation [45][51]. - Base Metal Futures: On November 10, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed upward trends. The report predicts that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts of these metals will likely have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation, and on November 11, the main contracts will have different trends, such as copper having a strong - biased oscillation and aluminum oscillating and consolidating [54][58]. - Energy and Chemical Futures: On November 10, crude oil, PTA, PVC, etc. showed different trends. The report predicts that on November 11, crude oil, PTA, and PVC futures will likely have a weak - biased oscillation [96][101][104].