Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-11 05:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry for the third quarter of 2025 [2] Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's net profit increased by 11% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with five sub-industries showing profit growth [16][17] - The overall performance of the sector declined in Q3 2025, with a 58% year-on-year drop in net profit, primarily due to significant losses in the breeding industry [18][19] - The pig farming sector faced a downturn with falling prices and a return to industry-wide losses, while the poultry sector showed mixed results with white feathered chickens stabilizing and yellow feathered chickens experiencing a significant decline [22][58] - The pet food segment continues to thrive domestically, although exports have been negatively impacted by increased tariffs [22][58] - The animal health sector benefited from high livestock inventory levels, leading to substantial revenue growth for companies in this space [22][58] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The sector's net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 369.4 billion, marking an 11% increase year-on-year [16] - In Q3 2025, the sector's net profit was 95.9 billion, reflecting a 58% decrease year-on-year and a 27% decrease quarter-on-quarter [18] 2. Key Sub-Industry Performance 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 3036.4 billion, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase, but Q3 saw a significant profit drop of 68.4% [22] - The average profit per head for self-bred pigs was approximately 60 yuan, with significant variations among companies [36][38] 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feathered chicken companies reported a revenue of 243.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit increase of 104.6% [64] - Yellow feathered chicken prices declined significantly, leading to a challenging market environment [58] 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food sector achieved a revenue of 103.0 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [22] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, while exports to the U.S. have decreased by 25.6% due to tariffs [22] 2.4 Animal Health - The animal health sector's revenue reached 132.7 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, with a 70.2% increase in net profit [22] - New product launches have contributed to above-average growth for some companies in this sector [22]