光大期货农产品日报-20251111

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Monday, affected by the increase in port quotes, corn futures prices continued to rise. The main 2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions, showing a joint rebound in futures and spot prices. There is a game between the producing areas and ports. Downstream feed enterprises remain cautious. Technically, the contract broke through the bottom neckline, suggesting short - term long positions [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Monday, CBOT soybeans rose. Traders are preparing for the USDA's supply - demand report. US soybean single - week export inspections were 1.089 million tons. Domestic protein meal fluctuated higher following the increase in import costs, but the supply surplus limited the upside. The strategy is to hold long futures positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - Fats and Oils: On Monday, BMD palm oil was generally stable. Malaysian palm oil data provided some support, but the increase was limited by weak November export data and the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit. Domestic fats and oils fluctuated. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - Eggs: On Monday, the main 2512 egg contract oscillated downward after opening and then rebounded, closing down 1.34%. Spot egg prices are stable with oscillations after a slight rebound last week. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Pigs: On Monday, the main 2601 pig contract closed with a small positive line, stabilizing with oscillations at the 40 - day moving average support. Spot pig prices continued to rebound. The 9 - month contract is expected to remain oscillating strongly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - Corn: The main 2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions. North port prices rose, and some traders in the sales areas also raised quotes. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious. Technically, it broke through the bottom neckline, suggesting short - term long positions [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean export inspections were in line with expectations, and the domestic supply was loose. The strategy is long futures + selling out - of - the - money call options [1]. - Fats and Oils: BMD palm oil was stable. Malaysian palm oil export data in November was weak, and the domestic market fluctuated. The strategy is short - term long positions [1]. - Eggs: The main 2512 contract closed down. Spot prices were stable with oscillations. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [1]. - Pigs: The main 2601 contract stabilized with oscillations. Spot prices rebounded, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be strongly oscillating [2]. Market Information - Soybean Inventory: As of November 10, the national imported soybean port inventory was 7.67077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50337 million tons [2]. - Three - major Fats and Oils Inventory: As of November 7, the total commercial inventory of the three major fats and oils was 2.2047 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1199 million tons (5.16% decline) and a year - on - year increase of 0.173 million tons (8.52% increase) [3]. - China's Edible Vegetable Oil: In 2024/25, production increased, imports decreased, and consumption decreased. In 2025/26, production remained the same as last month, with a slight decrease in peanut oil and a slight increase in cottonseed oil [3]. - China's Soybean: In 2024/25, imports were 109.37 million tons and exports were 8000 tons. In 2025/26, the production forecast was adjusted to 20.9 million tons. Global soybean supply is loose [4].