国富期货早间看点：MPOB马棕10月库存升至246万吨，美豆当周出口检验量为1,088,577吨符合预期-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It analyzes data from multiple agricultural and energy commodities, as well as currency exchange rates, to offer insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1][6][8][16][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4124.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.02% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are given for multiple currency indices, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.56, with a 0.02% increase [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8780, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [3]. Important Fundamental Information Region Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may increase in the coming week, which is beneficial for soybean crops. However, growers may be concerned about soil moisture for soybean germination and early growth. In Argentina, current weather is favorable for soybean sowing, but long - term models suggest a possible return to dry conditions [6]. International Supply - Demand - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October increased by 4.4% to 2460000 tons, with production up 11.02% to 2040000 tons and exports up 18.58% to 1690000 tons [8]. - AmSpec and ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% and 12.28% respectively compared to the same period last month [8][9]. - India's soybean oil imports in 2025 may jump by about 40% to 4.7 - 4.9 million tons, while palm oil imports are expected to drop to about 8 million tons [9]. - US soybean and corn harvests are nearly complete, with a 96% soybean harvest rate and a 92% corn harvest rate [9]. - As of November 6, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1088577 tons, in line with expectations [10]. - As of November 8, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 58.4%, and AgRural reported a 61% sowing rate as of last Thursday [10]. - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for the weeks of October 26 - November 1 and November 2 - 8 [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a four - day increase, mainly due to the decline in Capesize ship freight rates [11]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40300 tons, a 104% increase from the previous trading day [12]. - On November 10, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 193600 tons, an increase of 129700 tons from the previous day. The overall operating rate of oil mills was 56.06%, up 5.26% from the previous day [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week and a 10.86% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1157200 tons, a 4.82% decrease from the previous week but a 5.09% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key domestic regions was 2204700 tons, a 5.16% decrease from the previous week but an 8.52% increase year - on - year [13]. - As of November 10, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 767077 tons, a decrease of 50337 tons from the previous week [13]. - The estimated production, import, and consumption of edible vegetable oil in China for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided [13]. - On November 10, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.5% [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point cut in December is appropriate [16]. - The US Senate advanced a federal government temporary appropriation bill, which may end the 40 - day government shutdown, but its passage in the House is uncertain [16]. - The Eurozone's November Sentix Investor Confidence Index is - 7.4, lower than the expected - 4 [16]. Domestic News - On November 10, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0856, up 20 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [18]. - On November 10, the People's Bank of China conducted 1199 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 416 billion yuan [18]. - The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year, which is a step towards implementing the Sino - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultation consensus [18]. Fund Flows On November 10, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 18.119 billion yuan, including 9.752 billion yuan in commodity futures (592 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 1.372 billion yuan in chemical futures, - 227 million yuan in black - series futures, and 8.015 billion yuan in metal futures), 7.867 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 435 million yuan in Treasury bond futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.