天然橡胶产业周报：弱预期的压力与偏强现实的支撑-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral view on the natural rubber industry in the medium to long term [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the downstream automotive supporting production, sales, and exports are performing well, and the downstream operating rate is stable. The decline in rubber prices can drive manufacturers' rigid - demand purchases, providing effective support for the lower limit of rubber prices. However, the industrial chain inventory pressure is significant, leading to average downstream trading willingness, limited domestic demand growth, and existing export obstacles. In the medium to long term, the global total production capacity cycle has not fully reached its peak, and the supply pressure will increase. The stable demand expectation requires continuous macro - level benefits and actual implementation. The export growth, although resilient, still faces risks and challenges such as international situations and trade barriers [1][2] - In the future, rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. In the short term, the valuation may increase with market fluctuations. The report suggests different trading strategies based on price trends and market conditions [1][14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The downstream automotive supporting production, sales, and exports are good, and the operating rate is stable. The decline in rubber prices can drive rigid - demand purchases, providing support for the lower limit of rubber prices. However, the industrial chain inventory pressure is large, domestic demand growth is limited, and export obstacles exist. The market expects an increase in natural rubber supply, and the abundant supply and weak cost of synthetic rubber drag down the overall valuation of the rubber system [1] - In the medium to long term, the global production capacity cycle has not peaked, and the supply pressure will increase. Stable demand requires continuous macro - level benefits. The export growth faces risks from international situations and trade barriers [2] 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Price Range and Trend Judgement: The short - term reference oscillation range for RU2601 is 14900 - 15300, and for NR2511 is 12000 - 12400. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with short - term sentiment possibly warming up, but the pressure from the weak supply - demand expectation still exists [14] - Strategy Suggestions: For the short - term, take a bullish view with a focus on upper pressure levels. Consider hedging strategies such as combining protective options or using a long - volatility strategy. Hold the RU spot - futures positive arbitrage and pay attention to warehouse receipt changes. For NR, pay attention to high - level reverse arbitrage opportunities. For the 01 combination of the depth - difference spread, adopt a strategy of expanding the spread when the price is low [15] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - Price Forecast: The predicted price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14800 - 15700, and for 20 - grade rubber NR is 11900 - 12700 [18] - Risk Management Strategy: For inventory management, adopt strategies such as shorting rubber futures, buying out - of - the - money put options, and selling call options. For procurement management, consider buying rubber far - month futures, buying out - of - the - money call options, and selling put options [18] 3.2 Important Information and Focus Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive Information: In October, the CPI and core CPI showed positive changes. The auto consumption index was high, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks and new - energy passenger vehicles increased. There were favorable weather conditions and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations [20][21] - Negative Information: The EU launched an anti - subsidy investigation on Chinese tires. The rubber production in Thailand is expected to increase, and China's rubber imports increased. There were declines in the European replacement tire market and some negative macro - economic factors [22][24] 3.2.2 This Week's Focus Points - Pay attention to rainfall in rubber - producing areas and its impact on raw material supply, changes in dry - rubber imports and exports and social inventory, downstream tire export data and operating rate, and important macro - economic data and events [26] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend: Last week, rubber prices stabilized and rebounded after falling to the lower limit of the range. RU01 stabilized around 15000, and NR01 returned to around 12000. RU positions increased steadily, and NR positions rebounded slightly [28] - Capital Movement: In terms of profitable positions on the disk, the long and short positions of RU were stable, while the short positions of NR made more profits with a decrease in positions [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - Spot Price Changes: Last Friday, spot prices generally declined, with relatively large declines in whole - milk, Indian - standard, and Vietnamese No. 10 standard rubber [35] - Term Structure Analysis: - Basis Changes: Last week, the overall center of gravity of RU shifted downward, and the near - term contracts strengthened relatively. The 11 - 01 spread continued positive arbitrage. NR prices fell, and the back structure deepened [48][49] - Month - spread Structure: The Tocom RSS3 price decline led to a weakening of near - month contracts, and the C structure deepened. The Singapore TRES20 rubber price slightly increased, and the structure was flat [56] - Internal - External Spread: The spread between RU and Japanese smoked - sheet rubber futures narrowed, and the spread between NR and Singapore standard rubber oscillated and narrowed [59] - Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index: Recently, the rubber market sentiment has fluctuated greatly, with a neutral sentiment last week. The downstream tire demand sentiment slightly improved. Currently, the RU warehouse receipts are low, and the virtual - to - physical ratio continues to rise, while the NR virtual - to - physical ratio has decreased compared to the previous period [64][65] - Variety Spread Analysis: - Dry - rubber Spot Spread: Last week, the depth - difference spread steadily widened, and the relative valuation of whole - milk rubber was further repaired. The supply pressure of standard products may increase in the future, and attention should be paid to domestic weather and downstream production and sales [66] - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Spread: Last week, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased, while the operating rates of butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber recovered. The supply pressure of synthetic rubber was strong, and the spread between natural and synthetic rubber remained high [70] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - Raw Material Cost: Last week, rain in Hainan and southern Thailand affected raw material prices, with prices remaining firm in Hainan and southern Thailand, and weakening in Yunnan. The water - cup price difference in Thailand rebounded [72] - Processing Profit: The delivery profit of whole - milk rubber was similar to last week, and the profit of TSR9710 slightly declined. The import profit of Thai smoked - sheet rubber was flat, while the profits of Thai standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased and then slightly recovered [81][83] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - Production in Main Producing Countries: The natural rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, China, and India shows seasonal characteristics [86] - Import Situation: In October, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [87] 3.5.2 Demand Side - Total Demand in Main Producing Countries: In September, except for India, the total demand in main producing countries decreased month - on - month. The consumption in Malaysia and Indonesia in September was higher than the same period, but the cumulative volume remained low [90] - Tire Production and Sales: Last week, the operating rate of most tire enterprises returned to normal. The sales of all - steel and semi - steel tires showed different trends, and tire exports were resilient but faced challenges such as EU anti - subsidy investigations [93] - Replacement Demand: The domestic logistics industry has been stable this year, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [98] - Supporting Demand - Automobiles: Domestic passenger car sales have been strong, and commercial vehicle sales have also increased year - on - year. Automobile exports have increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [100][102] - Supporting Demand - Heavy - duty Trucks and Construction Machinery: The production of heavy - duty trucks has increased this year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of construction machinery's domestic sales and exports is 11.24%. In the long term, the growth of new demand for trucks may be limited [107] - Overseas Tire Production: Japan's tire production has been stable this year, and Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [109] - Overseas Tire Demand: US tire imports have increased despite a decline in auto sales. European passenger car production and sales are stable, while commercial vehicle production has decreased significantly. The production and export of Japanese and South Korean automobiles show different trends [111] - Other Rubber Product Demand: In October, the operating rate of domestic conveyor belts decreased to a five - year low, while the operating rate of rubber hoses was relatively good year - on - year [127] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures Inventory: Affected by weather, RU warehouse receipts continued to decline, while NR warehouse receipts increased due to stable rubber imports and high downstream wait - and - see sentiment [130] - Social Inventory: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory [132]