黑色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 11 日）-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the decline in temperature, the demand for rebar is entering the off - season, and steel mills' losses are expanding, leading to increased production cuts and maintenance. The short - term rebar futures may oscillate in a narrow range [1]. - For iron ore, the shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil are decreasing, iron - making production is falling, and inventories are rising. The short - term ore price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. - In the coking coal market, supply is tight due to safety inspections and over - production control, while downstream procurement demand has slightly increased. The short - term coking coal futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Regarding coke, although the third price increase has been implemented and the loss of coke enterprises has eased slightly, steel mills' demand is expected to weaken, and the short - term coke futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - For manganese silicon, the output has slightly declined, steel procurement volume has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. The short - term manganese silicon futures are expected to oscillate [1]. - In the ferrosilicon market, supply remains strong, steel demand is weak, and inventory has reached a new high. The short - term ferrosilicon futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3044 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions of 37,200 lots. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume recovered. National building material inventories decreased by 0.89% to 4.8292 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventories decreased by 0.47% to 2.4768 million tons, with a narrowing decline. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term futures are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 765 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.6%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a decrease in positions of 18,000 lots. Port spot prices rose slightly. Australian and Brazilian shipping volumes decreased, while those from other countries increased. Iron - making production decreased by 21,400 tons to 2.3422 million tons, and inventories at 47 ports and steel mills increased. Short - term ore prices are expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1265.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (0.35%), with a decrease in positions of 11,547 lots. Spot prices in some areas increased, and supply was tight due to safety inspections and over - production control. Downstream procurement demand increased slightly, and short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1743.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (0.74%), with a decrease in positions of 162 lots. Spot prices at ports decreased. Coke enterprises proposed a fourth price increase, but steel mills have not responded. After the third price increase, the loss of coke enterprises eased slightly, and inventories were low. Steel mills' demand is expected to weaken, and short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5820 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day, and a decrease in positions of 2377 lots to 354,800 lots. Market prices in different regions varied. Steel procurement volume decreased, output decreased slightly, and inventory reached a new high. Short - term futures are expected to oscillate [1]. - Ferrosilicon: On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5588 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day, and a decrease in positions of 3545 lots to 162,100 lots. Market prices in different regions were basically stable. Steel procurement volume decreased, supply remained strong, and inventory reached a five - year high. Short - term futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various varieties (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with changes compared to the previous period [4]. - Profit and Spread: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) is presented, along with changes compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various varieties over different months [16][18][22][24]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts present the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for different varieties [26][28][31][35][36][39][40]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio) for main contracts [44][46][47]. - Rebar Profit: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [49][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [56]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [56]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [56]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [57].