蛋白数据日报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock-to-consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may have room for downward adjustment, while the export forecast has room for upward adjustment. The supply-demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply-demand report next week [8][11]. - As of November 1st, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% last week, 53.3% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 54.7%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry conditions expected in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul in the next few weeks and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [10]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start reducing inventory, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The purchasing progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [11]. - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, with no obvious reduction in production capacity, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, but recent downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [11]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and inventory is expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level. Due to a significant decline in crushing last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased significantly as of last week. In the short term, the domestic futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly following the US market. Attention should be paid to the USDA report data this week and weather changes in South America [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on November 10th was -3, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous value. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions showed different changes, such as -5 in Tianjin, 5 in Rizhao, -5 in Zhangjiagang, 15 in Dongguan, -5 in Zhanjiang, and 15 in Fangcheng [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong on November 10th was 105, an increase of 14 compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 99, a decrease of 24 compared to the previous value. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 536, an increase of 17 compared to the previous value [7]. 3.3 Premium and Profit Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1175, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 145 cents per bushel, with no change. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit was - 86 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and inventory is expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level [11]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The USDA's 25/26 US soybean supply - demand balance is expected to be tight. The Brazilian soybean planting rate is lower than the same period last year and the five - year average, and attention should be paid to weather conditions. The purchasing progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [8][10][11]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may affect long - term supply. Recent downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [11].