【资产配置快评】2025年第50期：Riders on the Charts:每周大类资产配置图表精粹-20251111

Group 1: Market Trends - The CDS prices of large tech companies are significantly lower than the overall level of high-yield bonds, with Oracle's 5-year CDS at 85.8 basis points compared to a basket of high-yield bonds at 332.8 basis points[4] - The impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market shows no significant substitution effect, as productivity has increased while labor hours have decreased, leading to a mild rebound in unemployment rates[6] - The U.S. labor market and the stock market have not shown sustained divergence, as using non-farm employment numbers aligns the labor market with stock performance[10] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The three-party repurchase market volume reached a new high of $1.19 trillion, alleviating dollar liquidity shocks despite short-term tightening[13] - Concerns over the U.S. government shutdown have not lowered the consensus forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2025, which stands at 1.9%, only 0.3% lower than at the beginning of the year[16] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is at 4.3%, indicating significant room for valuation uplift compared to the historical average[18] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is 27 basis points, which is 57 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[21] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap is at -24.3 basis points, indicating increased offshore dollar financing pressure[24] - The copper-gold price ratio has dropped to 2.7, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.1, indicating a divergence in signals[26] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 28.8, above the average level of the past 16 years, suggesting enhanced attractiveness of stock assets relative to fixed income[28]