航运衍生品数据日报-20251111

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The market situation of shipping derivatives shows a weak oscillation. The short - term macro - positive factors, capacity control, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectation is falsified, the main contract is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for the December contract [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shipping Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1495, 1058, 2212, 1329, 2848, 1323 respectively. Their previous values were 1551, 1021, 2647, 1208, 3438, 1344, with corresponding changes of - 3.59%, 3.60%, - 16.43%, 10.02%, - 17.16%, - 1.56%. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1504 and 2029, with previous values of 1208 and 1983, and changes of 24.50% and 2.32% [4] 2. Shipping Contracts - For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, the current values are 1395.2, 1495.2, 1134.1, 1778.2, 1604.9, 1166.1 respectively. Their previous values were 1376.1, 1499.2, 1133.4, 1812.0, 1592.0, 1164.6, with corresponding changes of 1.39%, - 0.27%, 0.06%, - 1.87%, 0.81%, 0.13% [4] 3. Contract Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604 are 1446, 1286, 1485, 26680, 24696, 14451 respectively. Their previous positions were 1452, 1311, 1464, 25887, 22939, 14330, with changes of - 6, - 25, 21, 793, 1757, 121 [4] 4. Month - to - Month Spreads - The current values of month - to - month spreads 12 - 02, 12 - 04, 02 - 04 are 173.3, 612.1, 438.8 respectively. Their previous values were 220.0, 647.4, 427.4, with changes of - 46.7, - 35.3, 11.4 [4] 5. Industry News and Market Analysis - CMA states that no route can replace the Suez Canal, will continue using it, and expects to increase voyages through it. In 2026, the market will favor shippers, with freight rates falling. Maersk emphasizes the advantages of twins, achieving annual cost savings of 7 - 9.5 billion US dollars. In November, capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%. The overall TPBB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. Market demand in November remains healthy [5] 6. Market Factors and Outlook - The market shows a weak oscillation mainly because MSK's late - November quotes are much lower than other airlines. Key influencing factors include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airline strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables. Short - term macro - positive factors, capacity control, and price - support expectations will support the market. It is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract and closely monitor suspension and loading rates [7]