Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The brokerage business remains robust, and the profitability of emerging businesses is improving. The company has a strong platform barrier and is enhancing its brokerage framework while securing housing resources [7] - The company faces significant GTV pressure in Q4 2025 due to a noticeable decline in transaction activity in both the primary and secondary markets, which may impact brokerage revenue [7] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates revised to 3.6 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 77.777 billion yuan - 2024: 93.457 billion yuan - 2025E: 94.606 billion yuan - 2026E: 94.464 billion yuan - 2027E: 100.799 billion yuan - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: 5.883 billion yuan - 2024: 4.065 billion yuan - 2025E: 3.585 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.361 billion yuan - 2027E: 6.371 billion yuan - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2023: 1.63 yuan - 2024: 1.15 yuan - 2025E: 1.04 yuan - 2026E: 1.55 yuan - 2027E: 1.84 yuan [6][8]
贝壳-W（02423）：经纪业务保持稳健，新兴业务利润率改善