供需博弈叠加低库存支撑预期，铜价维持高位运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side overseas mine resumption and domestic anode copper capacity release bring increments, but the low operating rate of the copper processing industry on the demand - side limits the upside space. Domestic inventory depletion and the narrowing of LME backwardation support the price. There is a risk of price correction at high levels due to downstream resistance after the copper price breaks through 86,000 yuan/ton [6] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, ranging from 84,500 to 87,500 yuan/ton [39] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - As of November 10, the SHFE copper main - contract price rose slightly to 86,490 yuan/ton, a 0.65% increase from November 7. The LME copper price remained stable, closing at $10,695/ton on November 7, a 0.07% increase from November 4. The basis showed significant differentiation in spot premiums and discounts [1] - The LME copper open interest decreased slightly, with the open interest on November 7 decreasing by 1,670 lots to 324,423 lots. SHFE copper inventory increased by 1.06% to 135,900 tons, while domestic SMM mainstream area copper inventory decreased by 7,400 tons to 195,900 tons [2] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: Overseas mine disruptions weakened as the Freeport Indonesia Grasberg copper mine resumed operation at the end of October. The domestic anode copper smelting capacity release accelerated, with the expected anode copper operating rate in November rising 6.86 percentage points to 59.91%, but the operating rate recovery of mineral anode copper enterprises was limited due to maintenance [3] - Demand Side: The copper processing sector showed a significant off - peak season during the peak period. In October, the copper strip operating rate decreased by 1.05 percentage points to 64.97% month - on - month, with a year - on - year decline of 7.76 percentage points. The H65 brass strip processing fee dropped to around 1,000 yuan/ton. Although the expected copper strip operating rate in November is to rise to 66.57%, it is still 6.98 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory Side: Global visible inventories showed differentiation. LME inventory increased by 395 tons to 43,800 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 2,950 short tons to 369,400 short tons, while domestic SMM inventory decreased by 7,400 tons due to reduced imports and improved outbound shipments [5] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - Various copper - related price and inventory data are presented in a table, including SMM 1 copper price, spot premiums and discounts of different copper types, LME (0 - 3) backwardation or contango, SHFE and LME copper prices, and LME, SHFE, and COMEX copper inventories, along with their changes and rates of change from November 4 to November 10, 2025 [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On November 10, the copper strip market demand was off - peak during the peak season, and the mainstream H65 brass strip processing fee returned to around 1,000 yuan/ton [9] - In October 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 64.97%, a 1.05 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month and a 7.76 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The operating rates of large, medium, and small enterprises were 71.14%, 57.72%, and 55.9% respectively [9] - As of November 10, SMM national mainstream area copper inventory decreased by 7,400 tons week - on - week to 195,900 tons. Future imports are expected to decrease, and downstream procurement demand is expected to increase, leading to a further slight decrease in weekly copper inventory [9] - SMM expects that the overall operating rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises in November 2025 will rise 6.86 percentage points to 59.91%, with the operating rate of mineral anode copper enterprises expected to rise 9.65 percentage points to 68.78% and that of scrap - produced anode copper enterprises to be 55.77%, a 5.61 - percentage - point increase [9] - In October 2025, the operating rate of SMM Chinese anode copper enterprises was 53.05%, a 3.99 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Due to maintenance, the operating rate of mineral anode copper enterprises decreased by 5.45 percentage points to 59.13%, while that of scrap - produced anode copper enterprises increased by 8.48 percentage points to 50.15% due to increased scrap copper supply and a wider refined - scrap price spread [9] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - Multiple charts are presented, including those related to China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fee, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper various net - long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [10][11][13]