市场担忧美国出现流动性危机，金价延续震荡调整

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ADP employment data exceeded expectations and the market worried about a liquidity crisis in the US, causing the gold price to continue its volatile adjustment. Last Friday (November 7), the Shanghai gold futures price dropped 1.72% to 921.92 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold futures price fell 1.20% to 4077.20 US dollars/ounce. In the spot market, the gold T+D price declined 1.53% to 921.02 yuan/gram, and the London gold price decreased 2.65% to 4002.69 US dollars/ounce. The unexpectedly high ADP employment data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials cooled the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, pressuring the gold price. The significant rise in the US SOFR rate on October 31, announced last Monday, under the backdrop of the government shutdown and tightening bank liquidity, also triggered concerns about a liquidity crisis, putting downward pressure on the gold price. However, the subsequent sharp decline in the SOFR rate alleviated market concerns and pushed the gold price to rebound. Overall, the gold price continued its volatile adjustment last week due to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and concerns about a liquidity crisis [3]. - This week (the week of November 10), the gold price will continue to fluctuate within a range. The US Senate planned to hold a trial vote on a new plan to end the government shutdown last Sunday (November 9), and the government is expected to resume work this week, which will ease market risk aversion and have a certain negative impact on the gold price. However, if the government shutdown ends, multiple private - sector economic indicators will be released this week, and these data are expected to remain weak, which will increase the market's expectation of interest rate cuts and be beneficial to gold. Although the long - term upward trend of the gold price remains unchanged, there are currently no clear upward factors. Given various uncertainties, the gold price is expected to continue its range - bound fluctuation this week [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements - Last Friday (November 7), the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 921.26 yuan/gram, down 0.66 yuan/gram from the previous Friday. The COMEX gold futures price closed at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, continuing to decline by 5.60 US dollars/ounce. In the spot market, the gold T+D price closed at 917.64 yuan/gram, down 3.38 yuan/gram, and the London gold price closed at 4000.29 US dollars/ounce, down 2.40 US dollars/ounce [5]. - The trading data shows that the cumulative increase of the Shanghai gold futures was 0.32%, with a trading volume of 152 million and an open interest of 13.67 million, a decrease of 20,231. The COMEX gold futures had a cumulative increase of 0.28%, a trading volume of 102 million, an open interest of 31.15 million, and a decrease of 23,438. The gold T+D spot had a cumulative increase of 0.08%, a trading volume of 26.92 million, an open interest of 25.45 million, and an increase of 6,762. The London gold spot had a cumulative decrease of 0.06% [6]. 1.2 Gold Basis - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 1.10 US dollars/ounce, a significant drop of 16.90 US dollars/ounce from the previous Friday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.38 yuan/gram, a decline of 1.92 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Last week, the decline of the foreign - market gold price was smaller than that of the domestic - market gold price. The gold domestic - foreign price difference on Friday was - 18.76 yuan/gram, a significant recovery from - 19.46 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The decline of the crude oil price was greater than that of gold, and the gold - oil ratio increased slightly. The silver price continued to rise slightly while the gold price continued to fall, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline slightly. Due to the government shutdown, the spread between the US SOFR rate and the overnight repo rate soared, triggering concerns about US dollar liquidity, reducing market risk appetite, and causing the copper price to fall more sharply than gold, leading to a significant increase in the gold - copper ratio [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In the spot market, the gold ETF holdings increased slightly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 1042.06 tons, a slight increase of 2.86 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D continued to decrease, with a total of 269,158 kilograms last week, a 6.29% decrease from the previous week. - In the futures market, as of September 23 (the latest available data), both the long and short positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions increased, but the increase in short positions was less than that of long positions, resulting in a slight increase in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease last week, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 1800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms [14]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. The index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. Among the important sub - indices, the new orders index was 49.4, higher than the previous value of 48.9. The new orders in October decreased for the second consecutive month, but the decline rate slowed down. The production index dropped 2.8 points to 48.2, indicating output contraction in two of the past three months. The employment index was 46.0, higher than the previous value of 45.3 but still in the contraction range, contracting for the ninth consecutive month. The price - paid index was 58.0, the lowest level since the beginning of this year, far lower than the expected 62.5 and the previous value of 61.9, indicating a continued reduction in inflation pressure. The supplier delivery index rose to a four - month high, indicating a longer delivery cycle. The manufacturer's inventory decreased by the largest margin in a year, and the customer inventory level remained low, suggesting that future orders may increase, supporting production activities [17]. - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown is about to break the record. The current shutdown, which started on October 1, is likely to become the longest in US history. However, there are initial signs of a thaw in Congress, and senior lawmakers from both parties are sending cautious and optimistic signals, which eases market concerns about the US economic and political stability [18]. - The US ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high in October, and the price - paid index reached a three - year high. The index was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.0. The new orders index jumped 5.8 points to 56.2, reaching a one - year high. Along with the rebound in demand, inflation pressure became more obvious, and the input price index rose to 70.0, the highest in three years, indicating that the service industry is under greater pressure from US import tariffs. The employment situation is stabilizing, and the employment index rose to a five - month high of 48.2. Although still below 50, indicating a continued decline in employment, the decline rate has slowed down. The inventory index only contracted slightly in October, and more service companies believe their inventory levels are still high relative to business activities [19]. - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, exceeding expectations, but wage growth remained stagnant. The increase was mainly driven by the service industry, which added 32,000 jobs, and the commodity production industry, which added 9,000 jobs. The recruitment situation rebounded from two consecutive months of weakness, but the rebound was not widespread, mainly supported by education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and public utilities [19][20]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Last week, the divergence among Fed officials on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December increased. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has a vote this year, said the government shutdown led to the lack of key inflation data, making him cautious about further rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Mester, who will have a vote next year, said inflation is a more urgent concern than a weak labor market. She believes the current interest rate setting is "almost non - restrictive" and advocates that monetary policy should continue to put pressure on inflation. New York Fed President Williams said the era of low interest rates continues, and the neutral interest rate is estimated to be around 1%. Fed Governor Barr, who was previously the vice - chair for supervision, said the Fed must focus on "ensuring the robustness of the employment market" [29][30]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Movement - The US dollar index first rose and then fell last week, showing a slight overall decline. The rebound of the October US ISM services PMI index and the significant increase in the October ADP employment number, both exceeding market expectations, drove the dollar index up. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown, market risk sentiment cooled, causing the dollar index to decline again. As of last Friday, the dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 compared to the previous Friday [31]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Movement - The US 10 - year TIPS yield increased slightly last week. Fed officials' remarks generally strengthened Powell's hawkish view that "a December rate cut is not certain", and the rebound in the October ADP employment number showed positive signs in the labor market, leading to a slight increase in the US 10 - year TIPS yield. As of last Friday, the yield rose 2bp to 1.83% [33]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Russian forces continuously attacked the Ukrainian power system. Last Saturday (November 8), Russia launched a large - scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine, damaging large - scale energy facilities in three regions. Zelensky said Russia has always targeted the power system to damage heating equipment and called for corresponding sanctions. The Russian Ministry of Defense said the attacks were in response to Kiev's attacks on Russian territory [34].