原油、燃料油日报：供需宽松仍是定价主逻辑，油价弱势未改-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, with intertwined supply - demand contradictions. The supply side is supported by Iraqi supply disruptions, but the abundant idle capacity under the OPEC+ production - cut policy limits the upside. On the demand side, there is a long - short game between the recovery of refinery profits and the weakening expectation of jet fuel consumption. SC shows relative independence due to domestic price adjustments and regional spreads, but the deepening of near - month discounts reflects spot pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - On November 10, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 0.26% to 461.8 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 59.84 dollars/barrel and 63.7 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI strengthened by 0.21 dollars/barrel to 1.18 dollars/barrel and 5.04 dollars/barrel respectively, indicating an expansion of SC's premium relative to the outer market. The discount of the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread deepened to - 3.4 yuan/barrel, reflecting pressure on near - month contracts [2]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq was suspended due to force majeure, and 3 batches of crude oil shipments of Lukoil were cancelled, increasing the short - term risk of supply tightening in Iraq. The cooperation between Zhonggang Petroleum and Kazakh oil fields may provide potential support for long - term production capacity in Central Asia, but the short - term impact is limited [3]. - Demand Side: The slight increase in refined oil prices in China shows a marginal improvement in refinery profits, which may support crude oil procurement demand. However, Singapore's plan to levy a green tax on aviation fuel may suppress the consumption expectation of jet fuel in the Asia - Pacific region, forming a partial suppression on the demand side [4]. - Inventory Side: The expansion of the SC near - far month spread discount may imply an accumulation of domestic delivery inventories under supply pressure. The inventory data of the US and OECD have not been updated, and subsequent EIA reports need to be followed [5]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend with intertwined supply - demand contradictions. The supply side is supported by Iraqi supply disturbances, but the abundant idle capacity under the OPEC+ production - cut policy limits the upside. On the demand side, the recovery of refinery profits and the weakening expectation of jet fuel consumption form a long - short game. SC shows relative independence due to domestic price adjustments and regional spreads, but the deepening of near - month discounts reflects spot pressure [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Futures Prices: On November 10, 2025, SC was at 461.80 yuan/barrel, up 0.26% from November 7; WTI was at 60.05 dollars/barrel, up 0.35%; Brent was at 63.94 dollars/barrel, up 0.38%; OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at 64.83 dollars/barrel [8]. - Spot Prices: Various crude oil spot prices showed different changes, such as Oman up 0.41%, Dubai up 0.95%, etc. [8]. - Spreads: SC - Brent spread decreased by 3.09% to 0.94 dollars/barrel; SC - WTI spread remained unchanged; Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.78% to 3.89 dollars/barrel; SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread decreased by 41.67% to - 3.40 yuan/barrel [8]. - Other Assets: The US dollar index rose by 0.08% to 99.62; the S&P 500 rose by 1.54% to 6,832.43 points; the DAX index rose by 1.65% to 23,959.99 points; the RMB exchange rate remained stable [8]. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.25% to 42,116,800 barrels; Cushing inventory increased by 1.33% to 2,286,500 barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.12% to 40,959,500 barrels; API inventory increased by 1.47% to 45,043,900 barrels [8]. - 开工: The weekly operating rate of US refineries decreased by 0.69% to 86.00%; the crude oil processing volume of US refineries increased by 0.24% to 1,525,600 barrels/day [8]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: FU was at 2,693.00 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from November 7; LU was at 3,280.00 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; NYMEX fuel oil was at 249.51 cents/gallon, up 0.52% [9]. - Spot Prices: Most spot prices remained unchanged, such as IF0380 in Singapore and Rotterdam, MDO in Singapore and Rotterdam, etc. [9]. - Paper Prices: High - sulfur 180 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 0.46% to 376.78 dollars/ton; high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 0.17% to 371.43 dollars/ton [9]. - Spreads: The China high - low sulfur spread increased by 1.38% to 587.00 yuan/ton; LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) increased by 0.32% to - 1,887.00 yuan/ton; FU - Singapore 380CST decreased by 0.11% to - 1,780.00 yuan/ton [9]. - Inventory: Singapore's inventory decreased by 1.21% to 2,448,200 barrels [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.3.1 Supply - On November 10, Zhonggang Petroleum (International) Group Co., Ltd. and AralPetroleum Capital LLP entered into a memorandum of understanding to explore potential cooperation in oil well exploration and production in Kazakh oil fields. - On November 10, Iraq's SOMO cancelled 3 batches of crude oil cargoes of Lukoil scheduled for November shipment. - On November 10, Lukoil announced force majeure for the West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq and warned that it might withdraw from the project if the situation continued [10][11]. 3.3.2 Demand - On November 10, the new round of refined oil price adjustment window was opened, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased slightly due to international oil price fluctuations [12]. 3.3.3 Market Information - Starting from next year, air passengers departing from Singapore will pay a green fuel tax of up to S$41.60 (US$31.95), which may suppress the consumption of jet fuel in the Asia - Pacific region [14].