Report Summary Investment Ratings The report does not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views - Treasury Bonds: Difficult to have a trending market, maintain caution [6][7] - Stock Index Futures: Low risk of significant decline, consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10] - Precious Metals: Short - term pricing is relatively full, take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [11][12] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Prices may remain weak in the medium term, look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - Iron Ore: Market supply - demand pattern weakens, short - term may continue to be weak, look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] - Coking Coal and Coke: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [17] - Ferroalloys: May continue to have oversupply in the short term, consider long positions at low levels when spot falls into the loss range [19][20] - Crude Oil: Temporarily wait and see [22][23] - Fuel Oil: Look for short - selling opportunities [25][26] - Polyolefins: Look for long - buying opportunities [27][28] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillate [29][30] - Natural Rubber: Look for long - buying opportunities [31][32] - PVC: Pay attention to supply - side changes [33][34] - Urea: Limited downside space [35][36] - PX: May oscillate and adjust, consider trading within the range [37][38] - PTA: May oscillate, be cautious and control risks [39] - Ethylene Glycol: May be under pressure in the short term, pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40][41] - Short - Fiber: May oscillate following costs, control risks [42] - Bottle Chips: May oscillate following the cost side, control risks [43] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to consumption sustainability [44] - Copper: High - level oscillation, beware of phased corrections [45][46] - Aluminum: Run at a high level, beware of phased corrections [47][48][49] - Zinc: Oscillate within a range, high - sell and low - buy [50][51] - Lead: Oscillate and adjust [52][53][54] - Tin: May oscillate and strengthen [55] - Nickel: May oscillate [56] - Soybean Oil and Meal: Consider exiting long positions on soybean meal rallies; look for long - buying opportunities for soybean oil at low - cost support levels [57][58][59] - Palm Oil: Consider buying on pullbacks [60][61][62] - Rapeseed Meal and Oil: Consider buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts for rapeseed meal [63][64] - Cotton: Expected to be weak, there is pressure above [65][66] - Sugar: Oscillate [67][68][70] - Apples: Run strongly [71][72][73] - Hogs: Consider short - selling on rebounds [74][75] - Eggs: Consider adding short positions on rebounds [76][77] - Corn and Starch: Corn may face supply pressure, wait and see; corn starch may follow corn's trend [78][79][80] Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: Most Treasury bond futures rose in the previous trading session. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.22% to 116.280 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.01% to 108.485 yuan, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.02% to 105.940 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat at 102.468 yuan [5] - Open Market Operations: On November 10, the central bank conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 41.6 billion yuan [5] - Policy and Outlook: The State Council issued measures to promote private investment. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trending market [6] Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: Stock index futures showed mixed results in the previous trading session. The CSI 300 (IF) main contract rose 0.28%, the SSE 50 (IH) main contract rose 0.45%, the CSI 500 (IC) main contract rose 0.07%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) main contract rose 0.13% [8][9] - Policy and Outlook: The Asset Management Association of China drafted a guideline to regulate theme - investment funds. The domestic economy is stable but the recovery momentum is weak. Stock index futures are expected to have a low risk of significant decline [9] Precious Metals - Market Performance: In the previous trading session, the gold main contract closed at 935.98, up 1.60%, and the silver main contract closed at 11,719, up 2.05% [11] - Industry Data: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold ETFs increased their positions by 79.015 tons, a year - on - year increase of 164.03%. By the end of September, the domestic gold ETF position was 193.749 tons [11] - Outlook: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial for gold. However, the recent increase is large, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Performance: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations in the previous trading session. Tangshan billet was priced at 2950 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3060 - 3200 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was priced at 3250 - 3270 yuan/ton [13] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Rebar demand is still declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the medium - term. Supply is in an over - capacity situation, and inventory is higher than last year. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend [13] - Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] Iron Ore - Market Performance: Iron ore futures fell slightly in the previous trading session. PB powder was priced at 775 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder was priced at 675 yuan/ton [15] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Iron ore demand is falling, supply is increasing, and port inventory is rising. The supply - demand pattern is weakening [15] - Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: Coking coal and coke futures pulled back slightly in the previous trading session [17] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand is improving. Coke supply is decreasing, and downstream acceptance of price increases is decreasing [17] - Strategy: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [17] Ferroalloys - Market Performance: Manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose in the previous trading session [19] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Manganese ore supply is increasing, and iron alloy demand is weak. Supply is in a short - term over - supply situation [19] - Strategy: Consider long positions at low levels when spot falls into the loss range [19][20] Crude Oil - Market Performance: INE crude oil oscillated slightly in the previous trading session, closing below the 5 - day moving average [21] - Industry News: The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. An Indian company will comply with sanctions on Russia. OPEC will suspend production increases next year [21][22] - Outlook and Strategy: The increase in US crude oil production is difficult. Sanctions on Russia and OPEC's decision are beneficial for oil prices. Temporarily wait and see [22][23] Fuel Oil - Market Performance: Fuel oil oscillated slightly in the previous trading session, closing below the moving average [24] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is sufficient, which is negative for prices. Sanctions on Russia and reduced Sino - US trade frictions are positive [25] - Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities [26] Polyolefins - Market Performance: The Hangzhou PP market declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE market had partial price drops [27] - Supply - Demand Analysis: November maintenance will affect 41.6 tons. Social and factory inventories are low, but demand in the peak season is weak [27] - Strategy: Look for long - buying opportunities [28] Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: The synthetic rubber main contract rose in the previous trading session [29] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Raw material prices fell, supply was tight in some areas, and demand and inventory improved [29] - Outlook: Oscillate [30] Natural Rubber - Market Performance: The natural rubber main contract rose in the previous trading session [31] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Typhoons affected production, but demand improved slightly. Inventory decreased, and Thai exports declined [31] - Strategy: Look for long - buying opportunities [32] PVC - Market Performance: The PVC main contract fell in the previous trading session, and the spot price decreased [33] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is in an over - supply situation, and inventory is increasing. Demand is improving slightly [33][34] - Strategy: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34] Urea - Market Performance: The urea main contract fell in the previous trading session [35] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is gradually recovering, demand is affected by environmental protection, and inventory is higher than expected [35] - Outlook: Limited downside space [36] PX - Market Performance: The PX main contract rose in the previous trading session [37] - Supply - Demand Analysis: PX load increased, and imports decreased. Supply is slightly reduced, and the PXN spread is strong [37][38] - Outlook: May oscillate and adjust, consider trading within the range [38] PTA - Market Performance: The PTA2601 main contract rose in the previous trading session [39] - Supply - Demand Analysis: PTA load adjusted, polyester load was stable, and processing fees decreased [39] - Outlook: May oscillate, be cautious and control risks [39] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The ethylene glycol main contract rose in the previous trading session [40] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply decreased slightly, port inventory increased, and demand support was limited [40][41] - Outlook: May be under pressure in the short term, pay attention to inventory and supply changes [41] Short - Fiber - Market Performance: The short - fiber 2512 main contract rose in the previous trading session [42] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Short - fiber load increased, downstream demand was weak, and processing fees adjusted [42] - Outlook: May oscillate following costs, control risks [42] Bottle Chips - Market Performance: The bottle chips 2601 main contract rose in the previous trading session [43] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Bottle chips load decreased, export growth slowed, and processing fees adjusted [43] - Outlook: May oscillate following the cost side, control risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract rose 7.35% to 87,240 yuan/ton in the previous trading session [44] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is at a high level, demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and inventory is decreasing [44] - Outlook: Pay attention to consumption sustainability [44] Base Metals - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.2% to 86,500 yuan/ton. Supply is tight, demand is weak, and inventory increased. Be cautious of phased corrections [45] - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 0.12% to 21,675 yuan/ton. Supply is tight in the short term, demand is differentiated, and inventory increased slightly. Run at a high level, beware of corrections [47][48][49] - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.46% to 22,720 yuan/ton. Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Oscillate within a range [50][51] - Lead: The Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.2% to 17,525 yuan/ton. Supply may be affected, demand is weak, and inventory increased. Oscillate and adjust [52][53][54] - Tin: The main contract rose 0.31% to 286,690 yuan/ton. Supply is tight, demand has some support, and inventory decreased. May oscillate and strengthen [55] - Nickel: The main contract was at 119,490 yuan/ton. Supply may be affected, demand is weak, and inventory is high. May oscillate [56] Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Meal: Soybean meal and oil main contracts rose in the previous trading session. Supply is abundant, demand has different trends. Consider different trading strategies for each [57][58][59] - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil was stable. Supply and demand factors are mixed. Consider buying on pullbacks [60][61][62] - Rapeseed Meal and Oil: Canola futures rose. Supply and demand and inventory vary. Consider buying near - term and selling far - term for rapeseed meal [63][64] - Cotton: Domestic cotton oscillated, and international cotton rose. Supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Cotton prices are expected to be weak [65][66] - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar rebounded, and international sugar rose. Supply is expected to increase, and prices may oscillate [67][68][70] - Apples: Apple futures rebounded. Inventory is lower than last year, but quality is poor. Prices may run strongly [71][72][73] - Hogs: Hog prices had mixed trends. Supply is increasing, and demand has limited growth. Consider short - selling on rebounds [74][75] - Eggs: Egg prices rose slightly. Supply is high, but may improve. Consider adding short positions on rebounds [76][77] - Corn and Starch: Corn and starch main contracts rose. Supply is under pressure, and demand has a slight increase. Corn may wait and see, and starch may follow corn [78][79][80]
西南期货早间评论-20251111
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-11-11 07:38