或许依然是低利率：利率债2026年投资策略

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates room for OMO rate cuts, LPR cuts, and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a slight decline in the central tendency of the 10Y government bond yield [3][4] Economic Conditions - The current domestic market shows strong supply but weak demand, with structural contradictions still evident, and the foundation for economic recovery needs to be solidified. The manufacturing PMI for October is at 49.0%, remaining below the 50.0% threshold for seven consecutive months [4][25] - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is correction rather than stimulation, leading to structural and mild impacts on prices. The key variables for future price trends will be the strength of demand recovery and the rhythm of policy coordination [4][25] Valuation Insights - After adjustments, the reasonableness of the 10Y government bond valuation has improved, attributed to the gradual fading of the "seesaw" effect. The correlation coefficient between the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans and the 10Y government bond yield has been consistently high, indicating a strong relationship [4][26][27] - A model was developed to estimate the 10Y government bond yield based on the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans, yielding a formula: 10Y government bond yield = (1.11 × RMB loan weighted average interest rate * 100 - 1.95) / 100, with an adjusted R² of 0.908 [4][27] Policy Environment - The report highlights the central bank's liquidity injection as a significant factor influencing the bond market. The net purchase scale of government bonds in the open market is monitored, indicating the central bank's actions to manage liquidity [29][30] Market Dynamics - The report notes that both the upward and downward space for interest rates in 2025 is limited, suggesting a stable outlook for the bond market [19][32] - The volatility of bond yields has decreased, with the volatility in 2024 recorded at 0.18 and from the beginning of 2025 to November 7 at 0.09, indicating a narrowing and shortening of yield fluctuations [22]