10月金融数据前瞻（2025.10.09-2025.11.09）：社融继续阶段性回落，信贷同比少增

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is upgraded to "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant decrease in new credit and social financing, with October new credit expected to be around 300 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 200 billion RMB [4][12] - The overall demand for credit is weak, particularly in corporate long-term loans, with both large and small enterprises showing reduced financing needs due to negative export data and trade friction [18][19] - The report suggests that the upcoming expiration of a large volume of fixed-term deposits may lead to a further decline in risk-free interest rates, prompting a shift of deposits towards insurance and other assets [29] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Situation - Closing index stands at 4286.01, with a weekly high of 4670.31 and a low of 3596.91 [1] Credit and Financing Data - October's new social financing is projected to be around 800 billion RMB, down approximately 600 billion RMB year-on-year [24] - The report anticipates a continued decline in credit growth, with the overall credit demand remaining weak [27] Investment Recommendations - Focus on banks with significant deposit expirations and potential margin improvements, such as Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [29] - Attention should also be given to city commercial banks that will benefit from improvements in fixed asset investments, including Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [29]