瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE raw sugar futures rose on Monday as hopes that the US government shutdown might end soon boosted the commodity market. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE closed up 0.1 cent, or 0.70%, at 14.20 cents per pound [2]. - Brazil exported 420.5 million tons of sugar in October, a 13% year - on - year increase. However, from the start of the 2025/26 crushing season (April - March) to October 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 2195.68 million tons, a 5.27% year - on - year decrease. The supply pressure remains significant, but as the current crushing season nears its end, exports are expected to enter a seasonal decline [2]. - In the domestic market, due to import quotas and policy issues, the price decline is not obvious. Guangxi sugar mills are mainly focused on inventory reduction. The new crushing season in most areas starts in mid - to late November, with an expected delay, which provides some sales opportunities for old sugar. The overall market lacks significant driving factors, and prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the October import data [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5480 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 376,327 lots, an increase of 3084 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7721, an increase of 58. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 52,072 lots, an increase of 4379 lots [2]. - The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 1183, a decrease of 122 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar was 4002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 4996 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar was 5068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5760 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; and in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume was 55 million tons, a decrease of 28 million tons. Brazil's total sugar exports were 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1588 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; the price difference for Thai sugar was 1533 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 539 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton; the price difference for Thai sugar was 467 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons. The monthly output of soft drinks was 1591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.79%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 6.79%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.26%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.85%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 68.57 million tons of sugar in the first week of November, with an average daily export volume of 13.71 million tons, a 23% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of 17.84 million tons in November of the previous year. The total export volume in November of the previous year was 339.02 million tons [2].