瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that nickel prices will oscillate weakly. Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in prices, the bearish sentiment is rising, testing the lower limit of the range. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds, while paying attention to the MA10 pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 119,380 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is -150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,100 dollars/ton, up 80 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Nickel is 114,900 lots, down 2,884 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is -35,198 lots, down 842 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,404 tons, up 300 tons. The SHFE nickel inventory is 37,187 tons, up 436 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 32,292 tons, down 241 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,920 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -196.5 dollars/ton, down 5.12 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,481.66 million tons, up 2.56 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 dollars/ton, down 4.61 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.17 million metal tons, down 0.03 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 108.53 million tons, up 21.12 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 2.48 million tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.27 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment. The US government shutdown is likely to end before this weekend. The Senate plans to resume deliberation at 11 am on Monday. The US consumer price increase in October slowed for the first time in three months. Trump - appointed Fed governor Milan believes the government shutdown won't affect his view of the US economy and advocates a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [2]. 3.7 View Summary - Macroeconomically, the US government shutdown may last a few more days. Fundamentally, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs. The supply of Philippine nickel ore is high but with lower grades, and domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year. On the smelting side, new electrolytic nickel projects are slowly being put into production, and some smelters are reducing production due to low prices and cost pressure, so the growth of refined nickel output is expected to be limited. On the demand side, stainless steel mills are not in a peak season, but steel mill profits are improving, and production is expected to increase; new - energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, contributing a small demand increment. Domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing, and the market mainly purchases on demand, with the spot premium rising [2].