Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-11 09:11Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - A-share third-quarter reports showed good overall performance, providing bottom support for the market. However, the significant decline in external demand in October, which supported GDP in the first three quarters, is expected to drag down the economic fundamentals in the fourth quarter and have a negative impact on stock market sentiment. Currently, after the disclosure of A-share third-quarter reports and with no major domestic meetings scheduled this month, the market is in a policy and performance vacuum period. In an environment lacking clear trading guidance, the market is expected to show a random walk, and stock indices will remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2512) closed at 4626.8, down 39.4; IF second main contract (2511) closed at 4640.2, down 41.0. IH main contract (2512) closed at 3033.0, down 17.8; IH second main contract (2511) closed at 3033.6, down 18.8. IC main contract (2512) closed at 7173.0, down 57.2; IC second main contract (2511) closed at 7242.2, down 52.2. IM main contract (2512) closed at 7390.4, down 22.0; IM second main contract (2511) closed at 7476.6, down 22.6 [2]. - IF-IH current-month contract spread was 1606.6, down 24.8; IC-IF current-month contract spread was 2602.0, down 14.6. IM-IC current-month contract spread was 234.4, up 28.4; IC-IH current-month contract spread was 4208.6, down 39.4. IM-IF current-month contract spread was 2836.4, up 13.8; IM-IH current-month contract spread was 4443.0, down 11.0 [2]. - IF current-quarter - current-month was -39.8, up 6.4; IF next-quarter - current-month was -81.2, up 9.6. IH current-quarter - current-month was -4.0, up 1.2; IH next-quarter - current-month was -11, up 0.2. IC current-quarter - current-month was -238.4, down 0.6; IC next-quarter - current-month was -428.4, down 0.4. IM current-quarter - current-month was -309.6, unchanged; IM next-quarter - current-month was -526.8, down 2.2 [2]. Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were -25,696.00, down 1324.0; IH top 20 net positions were -15,186.00, up 581.0. IC top 20 net positions were -19,632.00, down 304.0; IM top 20 net positions were -36,691.00, down 1352.0 [2]. Spot Prices - CSI 300 closed at 4652.17, down 42.9; IF main contract basis was -25.4, down 2.3. SSE 50 closed at 3,034.6, down 19.2; IH main contract basis was -1.6, down 1.8. CSI 500 closed at 7,291.6, down 52.2; IC main contract basis was -118.6, down 10.6. CSI 1000 closed at 7,540.8, down 22.5; IM main contract basis was -150.4, down 8.1 [2]. Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 20,138.85, down 1804.86; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 25,014.17, up 77.23. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2436.37, up 77.81; reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) was -1175.0, up 4038.0 [2]. - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were -371.00, down 643.87. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 51.15, down 10.85; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.508, up 0.029 [2]. - IO at-the-money call option closing price (2511) was 44.80, down 26.80; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) was 13.97, down 0.01. IO at-the-money put option closing price (2511) was 49.20, up 16.20; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) was 13.97, up 0.06 [2]. - CSI 300 index 20-day volatility (%) was 16.37, down 0.26; trading volume PCR (%) was 61.76, down 6.54. Position PCR (%) was 84.96, down 2.13 [2]. Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares were at 4.70, down 1.60; technical aspect was at 5.10, down 1.10. Capital aspect was at 4.30, down 2.20 [2]. Industry News - National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in October, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: 0.1%) and 0.2% year-on-year (previous value: -0.3%); core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.2% year-on-year. PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month (previous value: flat) and fell 2.1% year-on-year (previous value: -2.3%) [2]. - A-share major indices closed lower. The three major indices opened higher and then oscillated lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index barely holding above 4000 points. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.4%. A-share trading volume declined. Nearly 3400 stocks rose across the market. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with the commerce and retail sector leading the gainers and the communication sector leading the losers [2]. - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals and prices, driven by the anti-involution policy and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the year-on-year and month-on-month increases in CPI and PPI in October both rebounded compared with the previous month. The rebound in inflation has a boosting effect on household consumption and corporate investment. In terms of external demand, affected by the US tariff increase, China's import and export trade in October significantly declined compared with September. The new export orders index under the previously announced manufacturing PMI also dropped significantly by 1.9 percentage points compared with September, indicating a weakening of external demand [2]. - From the disclosure of listed companies' third-quarter reports, among the four stock index futures, the net profit growth rates of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 all accelerated compared with the semi-annual reports, and the net profit decline of CSI 1000 also showed a narrowing trend [2]. Key Data to Watch - Pending: China's October financial data. On November 13 at 21:30, the US October CPI and core CPI will be released. On November 14 at 10:00, China's October industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, social consumer goods retail sales, real estate data, and unemployment rate will be released [3].