苹果产业日报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current late - Fuji apple inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and price fluctuations have intensified on the futures market. It is recommended to buy long positions on dips in the short term and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9229 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 139,277 lots, a decrease of 2,878 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 7,393 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above) is 5 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above) it is 2.3 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above half - commodity) it is 4.2 yuan/jin, with a change of 0.1 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above first - grade second - class fruit farmer's goods) it is 3.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly apple fruit wholesale price is 9.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 698.42 million tons, the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.41, unchanged; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0, and the monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly apple export amount year - on - year is - 8.5%. The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1,837,980 million US dollars, an increase of 248,684.5 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.67 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.02 yuan/kg; for bananas it is 5.18 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.1 yuan/kg; for watermelons it is 5.48 yuan/kg, with a change of - 0.02 yuan/kg. The weekly average number of early - morning arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.2, a decrease of 4; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market it is 17, a decrease of 3.6; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market it is 24, a decrease of 3.6 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 23.36%, a decrease of 0.67%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 23.36%, a decrease of 0.67% [2] Industry News - Cold - storage trading in the western apple - producing areas has gradually started, with Shandong merchants actively purchasing goods, and the price of stored Fuji apples in Gansu is stable and firm. In the Shandong producing area, the mainstream price of surface supplies has declined due to quality issues, and the local inventory has continued to increase. The ground trading of new - season late - Fuji apples is gradually ending, mainly concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. As of November 5, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 698.42 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 41.03%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.42%; in Shaanxi it is 56.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.77%. The new - season late - maturing Fuji apples in Shandong have smaller fruit sizes and poorer fruit surface quality, showing a trend of reduced production and quality [2]