Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-11 09:10Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price is expected to remain strong at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small - long position, and pay attention to the 29 resistance level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 288,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,620 yuan/ton; the closing price of the December - January contract of Shanghai Tin is - 190 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price is 36,180 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 360 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 36,392 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2,135 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 93 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 578 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 3,035 tons, with no change; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 140 tons, with no change. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 5,992 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 73 tons [3] 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt is 5,582 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 112 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 287,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,900 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 288,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,960 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 760 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 950 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 33.33 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.33 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 271,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrates is 275,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 63.06 tons [3] 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 186,290 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,440 yuan/ton. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 19.76 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.1 million tons [3] Industry News - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment; the US government shutdown may end before this weekend; the price increase of US consumer goods in October slowed down for the first time in three months; Trump - appointed Fed governor Milan believes that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy and that a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut should be made in December [3] 观点总结 - The first batch of restarted mines in Myanmar's Wa State are in the production - climbing period, and the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar in the fourth quarter is expected to increase steadily but the increment is limited. The tin ore imports from Africa and Australia have declined unexpectedly, and Africa will enter the rainy season soon. The tin ore imports decreased month - on - month in September. Indonesia plans to accelerate the release of refined tin exports in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains low; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, the operating rate is at a low level, and the output of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, the tin price has been fluctuating recently. Downstream buyers in the spot market mainly purchase at low prices, mostly for small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [3]