Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-11 09:00Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomic factors include the potential end of the US government shutdown by the weekend, 13 measures proposed by the State Council to boost private investment, and a slowdown in US consumer - price inflation in October. - On the supply side, zinc ore imports are rising due to long - term contract ores arriving at ports and refineries' raw material reserves for winter. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices are falling, squeezing smelter profits and limiting refined zinc output growth. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift towards net exports expected. - On the demand side, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" were lackluster. The real - estate sector is a drag, while the automotive and home - appliance sectors show some policy - supported bright spots. Downstream demand recovery is weak, with spot premiums low and domestic inventories increasing. LME zinc de - stocking is slowing, and spot premiums are high. - Technically, positions are decreasing, prices are adjusting, and the bullish sentiment has weakened slightly. Attention should be paid to the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the 12 - 01 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,085.5 dollars/ton, up 19 dollars. - The total SHFE zinc open interest is 226,896 lots, down 1,204 lots; the net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 15,406 lots, down 421 lots. - SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 70,518 tons, up 649 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) is 100,208 tons, down 3,208 tons; LME inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,660 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,660 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 15 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 176.55 dollars/ton, up 24.29 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. - The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 161,700 tons, down 100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. - Automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.23%, up 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.23%, up 0.03%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.51%, down 0.86%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.98%, down 0.03% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The State Council's General Office proposed 13 measures to further promote private investment. - The US government shutdown may end before this weekend. The Senate plans to resume deliberation on Monday morning, and bipartisan cooperation is needed to speed up the process. - US consumer - price inflation slowed for the first time in three months in October. - Trump - endorsed Fed nominee Milan believes the government shutdown won't affect his view of the US economy and that a 50 - basis - point rate cut is needed in December [3].