Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-11 09:09Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market may face slightly reduced supply and a steady increase in demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may have stable supply and slightly reduced demand, with a small accumulation of industrial inventory. It is suggested to conduct light - position oscillating trades and control trading risks [2]. - The casting aluminum alloy market may experience a slowdown in the growth rate of supply and demand, with an accumulation of industrial inventory. Light - position oscillating trades are recommended, along with risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - Price Movements: The closing prices of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy decreased, while the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation increased. The spot prices of Shanghai - colored A00 aluminum and Yangtze River - colored AOO aluminum increased, and the alumina spot price also rose [2]. - Inventory Changes: The LME aluminum inventory decreased, while the inventory of alumina increased. The Shanghai aluminum inventory and the inventory of casting aluminum alloy showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - Position Changes: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased, and the position of the main contract of casting aluminum alloy also increased, while the position of the main contract of alumina decreased [2]. b. Upstream Situation - Production and Demand: The alumina production increased, but the demand decreased. The import of aluminum scrap decreased, while the export increased. The export of alumina increased, and the import decreased [2]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, and the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance also showed an improvement trend [2]. c. Industry Situation - Production and Capacity: The production of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and some aluminum - related products changed. The total capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and the production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots also remained unchanged [2]. - Inventory and Export: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the export of some aluminum products decreased [2]. d. Downstream and Application - Production and Index: The production of automobiles increased, while the national real - estate prosperity index decreased. The production of some aluminum - related products in the downstream also changed [2]. e. Option Situation - Volatility and Ratio: The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased, the implied volatility of the main at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum decreased slightly, and the option purchase - put ratio increased slightly [2]. f. Industry News - Fed's Stance: Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts, and San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests discussing further rate cuts [2]. - Automobile Industry: In October, the production and retail of passenger cars and new - energy vehicles showed different growth trends. From January to October, there were also significant growth rates in the production and retail of these vehicles [2]. - Policy: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document on new - energy development and utilization [2].