投资策略专题：从产能周期看业绩增长线索

Group 1 - The report indicates that the performance recovery in Q3 2025 is supported by capacity clearance, which in turn aids price improvement. The "policy bottom" signal has become clearer following the public consultation on the amendment to the Price Law in July 2025, leading to expectations of improved competitive landscape and stabilization of PPI year-on-year [3][4][13]. - In Q3 2025, the capital expenditure across the A-share market (excluding financials) continued to decline, with construction projects showing a negative year-on-year growth for the first time in nearly eight years. This indicates proactive adjustments in capacity planning in response to supply excess under policy guidance [4][16][17]. - The report categorizes industries based on their capacity cycle and profitability recovery potential, highlighting two main types: demand-driven industries (e.g., communication, electronics, non-ferrous metals, automotive) and supply-side optimized industries (e.g., steel, building materials, construction decoration, light manufacturing, textiles) [5][21][23]. Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on industries where capacity clearance is accelerating and profitability is expected to improve sustainably. Key sectors include coal, steel, power equipment, and building materials, which have shown price support and potential for profit margin enhancement [6][23][35]. - The analysis emphasizes that industries with current low profit margins and active capacity reduction, such as computers, light manufacturing, construction decoration, and textiles, may experience significant performance recovery if demand-side policies or industry upgrades occur [5][23][35]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the PPI improvement and broad-based benefits from anti-involution policies, particularly in sectors like steel, non-ferrous metals, power, machinery, photovoltaic, and chemicals [6][37].