银河期货甲醇日报-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the methanol market is facing a downward trend. With high domestic supply, increased international device operation rates, and high inventory levels, despite some minor disturbances in imports, methanol is expected to continue its decline [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: The futures price of methanol oscillated downward, closing at 2082 (-16/-0.76%) [2]. - Spot Market: Different regions have different spot prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 1950 yuan/ton, and the northern line is at 1990 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the market price in southern Shandong is 2120 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region from November 10 - 11, 2025, was 88,800 tons (8.88 million tons), an increase of 64,900 tons (6.49 million tons) compared to the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 271.55% [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply Side: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply remains abundant with a high and stable methanol operating rate [4]. - Import Side: The US dollar price is dropping rapidly, the import parity is expanding. The operation rate of foreign devices has returned to a high level, and there is a large amount of non - Iranian supply [4]. - Demand Side: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, with some MTO devices operating stably and others at less - than - full capacity [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, the basis is strong, and the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates slightly. However, due to increased imports and stable downstream demand, the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Hold short positions [5]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6]. - Options: Sell call options [6].