银河期货尿素日报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that urea will continue its downward trend. The domestic supply is abundant, and with the end of the autumn fertilizer season in North China, the overall demand is set to enter a "vacuum period." Although the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas may boost market sentiment in the short - term, the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and weakened, closing at 1640 (-21/-1.26%) [3]. - Spot Market: The ex - factory prices were weakly stable with average trading. Different regions had different ex - factory price ranges, such as 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton in Henan, 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton for small - sized in Shandong and Hebei, 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton for medium and small - sized in Shanxi, 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton for small - sized in Anhui, and 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [3]. Important Information - On November 11, the daily production of the urea industry was 19.51 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and an increase of 1.49 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, up 3.68% from 79.73% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - The impact of the news about the new export quota has faded, and market sentiment has cooled. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes led the increase, but market sentiment cooled, with the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declining, raw material inventory being abundant, finished product inventory being high, and few grass - roots orders. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the ex - factory quotes followed the increase. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory prices followed the increase, and the market atmosphere was average. The demand in Northeast China was stable, and the trading sentiment was okay [5]. - The maintenance devices have gradually returned, and the daily average production has increased to around 19.6 tons. On the demand side, with the issuance of the fourth batch of quotas, the influence of international prices on the domestic market has increased again. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, and the grass - roots stockpiling is coming to an end. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the urea inventory can be used for more than half a month. The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased slightly by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, which is at a high level overall [5]. - The domestic supply is loose, and the overall demand is showing a downward trend. In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited. Although the new quota issuance will boost market sentiment to some extent in the short - term, the domestic autumn fertilizer has ended, and the overall demand is about to enter a "vacuum period." With the recent callback of bulk commodities and the loose fundamentals of urea, it is expected that urea will continue to decline [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7].