银河期货煤炭日报-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coal price is expected to slow down its upward trend in the short term. The supply is tightening as the coal production in major producing areas is running at a low level, and the coal prices at ports have been rising continuously. However, with the decrease in power plant consumption and the relatively stable port inventory, the upward momentum of coal prices is expected to weaken [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Review - On November 11, the port thermal coal market remained in a stalemate, with the supply and demand sides in a continuous game. The prices of different calorific value coal types in various regions are as follows: 5500 - kcal coal is priced at 840 - 850 yuan/ton in ports, 590 - 630 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia for non - power enterprises, 620 - 670 yuan/ton in Shanxi for non - power enterprises, and 890 - 900 yuan/ton in Jiangnei ports; 5000 - kcal coal is priced at 740 - 750 yuan/ton in ports, 500 - 540 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia for non - power enterprises, 550 - 600 yuan/ton in Shanxi for non - power enterprises, and 790 - 800 yuan/ton in Jiangnei ports; 4500 - kcal coal is priced at 640 - 650 yuan/ton in ports, 435 - 475 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia for non - power enterprises, and 470 - 520 yuan/ton in Shanxi for non - power enterprises. The price of 6000 - kcal coal in Yulin for non - power enterprises is in the range of 680 - 710 yuan/ton, and the price of 5800 - kcal coal is in the range of 640 - 670 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In October 2025, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal, a decrease of 451.1 million tons or 9.75% compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 426.60 million tons or 9.27% compared with September. From January to October 2025, China imported a total of 38762.30 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 10, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos is 71%, and that in Yulin is 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin is more than 390 million tons, and the domestic supply is generally tightening. The coal prices have generally risen due to strong Chinese procurement demand [4]. - Demand: The procurement demand in China is relatively strong, while that in Japan and South Korea is average. The overall market sentiment has improved driven by Chinese buyers. Most power plants are operating at a load of about 70%, and the number of available days of power plant inventory is at a medium - to - high level, with a relatively stable overall operation. Some power plants mainly rely on long - term contract fulfillment and basically achieve a balance between intake and consumption, while a few power plants make small - scale market purchases according to their own inventory structures [4]. - Inventory: Railway transportation has returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line is 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau is around 30. The port inventory is generally stable. As of November 10, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports is 22.91 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants is low, but the inventory is continuously decreasing, and the inventory of inland power plants is neutral [4]. - Overall Situation: In mid - November, the coal production in major producing areas is running at a low level, the coal operating rates in Ordos and Yulin are stable, and the daily average output is around 3.8 million tons, with supply tightening. The power plant inventory is continuously decreasing, the import profit is available, and coastal power plants are increasing their procurement efforts. The port intake and output are at a low level, and the port inventory fluctuates within a range. With the end of the high - temperature period across the country, the daily consumption of power plants is hovering at a low level, and the coal consumption is average. However, the inventory of coastal power plants is lower than the same period, and they continue to make rigid - demand purchases, leading to a continuous increase in the port FOB price. The coal mine operating rate is low due to strengthened safety supervision at the mine mouth, and the output is average. The demand for chemical coal is acceptable, and the increase in the mine - mouth price has narrowed. It is expected that the coal price will mainly slow down its upward trend in the short term [4].