Minsheng Securities·2025-11-11 09:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase in profitability, with overall profits rising year-on-year in Q3 2025. The sector's performance is driven by a new resource cycle, with copper and aluminum showing strong price increases [2][3]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with precious metals, base metals, and energy metals all experiencing different trends in profitability and price movements [2][3]. Summary by Sections Overall Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 93.45% since the beginning of 2025, with a 47.02% rise in Q3 2025, ranking it second among sectors [1][9][15]. Sub-sector Analysis - Base Metals: In Q3 2025, copper and aluminum prices rose by 5.90% and 5.64% year-on-year, respectively, with net profits increasing by 56% and 38% [2][44]. - Precious Metals: Gold prices increased by 39.88% year-on-year, with net profits for the precious metals sector rising by 55.89% [2][44]. - Energy Metals: Lithium prices saw a decline of 8.0%, while cobalt prices increased by 49.2% year-on-year, indicating a mixed performance in this sub-sector [2][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued optimism for copper and aluminum, driven by expectations of demand growth from AI data centers and a global easing of monetary policy. Key recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [3][4]. - For energy metals, the report notes an improvement in the lithium supply-demand balance and recommends companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt [3][4]. - In the precious metals sector, the report maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, recommending stocks such as Western Gold and Shandong Gold [3][4]. Financial Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector's net profit for Q3 2025 increased by 50.92% year-on-year, with a notable rise in gross profit margins [31][32]. - The report indicates that the sales gross margin and net margin have been on an upward trend since 2019, with Q3 2025 showing a recovery in profitability [31][32]. Market Trends - The report identifies a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector compared to major indices, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 [15][16]. - The report also notes that the sub-sectors of rare earths and silver have shown particularly strong performance, with significant price increases [19][21].