Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait-and-see stance, with an expected price range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [4][94] - Stainless steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton [5][120] 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supply side shows stable nickel ore prices, decreased arrivals last week, and port inventory reduction. Domestic iron mills' losses have widened, leading to reduced production schedules, while Indonesian iron mills' production schedules have increased, and nickel iron inventory has accumulated. Domestic refined nickel production schedules have decreased, and export profits have expanded. On the demand side, ternary material production schedules have increased, while precursor production schedules have decreased. Stainless steel mills' production schedules have decreased, mainly due to reduced production of the 200 series. Alloy electroplating demand is stable. In terms of inventory, pure nickel social inventory increased last week, while bonded area inventory decreased. Overall, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure remains high, and the valuation of pure nickel is low. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][94] - Stainless steel: From a fundamental perspective, stainless steel mills' production schedules have decreased, mainly due to reduced production of the 200 series, while the production schedule of the 300 series is basically flat, and the terminal demand for stainless steel is weak. The cost-side support continues to weaken, with nickel pig iron and high-carbon ferrochrome prices falling. In terms of inventory, the total inventory has increased, while the 300 series inventory has decreased. Overall, the demand is weak, the loose fundamental pattern is difficult to change, and the cost continues to weaken. Therefore, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [5][120] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 0.99%. The trading volume of SHFE nickel decreased to 546,500 lots (-46,200), and the open interest increased to 121,900 lots (+9,400). LME nickel also declined by 1.35% weekly, and its trading volume increased to 37,500 lots (+7,200) [11] - The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained unchanged, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China also remained stable [20] - In September, the export volume of Philippine nickel ore decreased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [25] - Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased by 415,000 tons month-on-month, and the port inventory of nickel ore decreased by 220,000 wet tons [27] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron increased by 150 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium of nickel pig iron to scrap stainless steel widened [32] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports reached 1.085 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24.2% and a year-on-year increase of 47.2%. Imports are expected to decline in October [36] - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [44] - Nickel pig iron inventory has accumulated [46] 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel decreased [50] - The export profit of electrolytic nickel has expanded [54] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased, while exports decreased [58] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of the 300 series was basically flat [63] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.7% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year. Imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [67] 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price decline of pure nickel was greater than that of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [72] - In November, the production schedule of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 20.4% year-on-year, while the production schedule of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month-on-month and 39.8% year-on-year [76] - In November, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month-on-month and 23.4% year-on-year [78] - In September, the production of new energy vehicles reached 1.617 million units, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% and a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. The sales volume reached 1.604 million units, a month-on-month increase of 15.0% and a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [84] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory increased [85] - Last week, the bonded area pure nickel inventory decreased by 200 tons, while the six-region social total inventory increased by 1,029 tons [90] 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel by purchasing nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP externally decreased. The cost advantage of producing electrowinning nickel through MHP integration is significantly higher than that through nickel matte integration [93] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of high-nickel pig iron and high-carbon ferrochrome decreased, and the cost-side support weakened [101] - The profit of the 200 series of stainless steel decreased, the loss of the 300 series widened, and the loss of the 400 series decreased [105] 2.3 Fundamental Aspects - In November, stainless steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of the 300 series was basically flat [109] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.7% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year. Imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [112] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory has increased. The inventory of the 200 series has increased, the 300 series has decreased, and the 400 series has increased [118] 2.5 Market Outlook - Nickel: Hold a wait-and-see stance, with an expected price range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure remains high, and the valuation of pure nickel is low. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [94] - Stainless steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, the loose fundamental pattern is difficult to change, and the cost continues to weaken. Therefore, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [120]
有色金属周报：镍与不锈钢弱势延续-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-11-11 09:32